b’s analysis:
I doubt that he will be able to close down the war in 24 hours, as he had promised. I rather think that he will escalate it.
Trump will likely select (neo-conservative) hawks to run his defense and foreign policies. They will take all possible measures, even against Trump’s declared will, to keep the war going. For them it is down to the last Ukrainian, then down to the last European - if only to show that the U.S. will never give up.
To cover for this Trump and his acolytes may well offer an immediate ceasefire. But that will not work.
The war will go on. Russia will have to, as Gordon Hahn predicts, cross the Dnieper, retake Odessa and threaten Kiev. Zelenski is unlikely to politically survive such a situation.
Only a direct intervention by NATO, could be able to change that trajectory. That however would likely expand the war into a global contest that not even Trump’s hawks will want to pursue.
I am actually hoping Trump follows up on his promise of ending the war quickly, by stopping the weapons deliveries and money, and forces Zelenskyy to negotiate with Russia. Trump is a populist and I am pretty sure his staff is feeding him correct information on the opinions on the war: most Americans are cooling off it with a large number against it, Germany is in chaos, EU is out of equipment/ammo to send. It is obvious that the US needs to continue providing the bulk of the support, which Trump, if he wants to be popular, won’t do.
Sounds ridiculous, but Putin just needs to offer Trump something good. lol
I predict:
- Trump will stop sending weapons to Ukrainians
- Trump will direct, behind closed doors, NATO and Z to provoke Russia into reaching further West
- Trump will publicly attempt to pull out of NATO, forcing Europe to spend on defense and further activating its right wing
- Trump will symbolically loosen sanctions on Russia while simultaneously escalating the tradewar with China by adding sanctions to Russia (and other BRICS countries) that are contingent on them trading with China and DPRK
MIR, the sanctioned card payment system, will evade blocks through interconnectivity with other BRICS PAY members. Which means, the card may work with merchants receiving UnionPay payments.
Sounds plausible.
