There’s a more serious threat here.

If Russia takes Pokrovsk, it can use it to expand outwards and encircle Ukrainians fighting in northern Donbass. There’s a reason that area has been stationary for so long, and that’s because Russia hasn’t been doing much to try and advance there. It’s likely they are waiting for the fall of Pokrovsk to start. The Vovchansk attack might have also been a way to not only secure the passage to Belgorod, but also to tie down Ukrainian forces in the general area to be encircled.

Furthermore, beyond Pokrovsk there’s literally no prepared defenses. I believe Russia will push to Pokrovsk before the end of the year and will look to immediately make an advance further west to the Dnieper region, to capitalize on the lack of defenses.

Russia has been shifting from attritionary positional warfare to maneuver warfare over the past month. The Russian generals likely believe that the Ukrainian army has reached its breaking point and can no longer mount effective defense anywhere.

We’ve been seeing more and more large pincer advances using mobile and armored units, unlike the previous offenses with small infantry groups supported by 1 or 2 APCs or tanks. There’s been 4 large encirclements the past 2 weeks alone: 1 in Ugledar, that has been liquidated, 1 in New York (which the Ukrainians managed to break out from), 1 in the northwest Kursk area (created last Friday) and 1 to the north of Kurakhova (almost completed). There’s also an ongoing attempt to create a large encirclement on the east bank of Askol river (north of Karlovka).

To me, that shift in tactics speaks to a larger offensive, that will probably come towards the end of October, all along the frontline. Likely the aim will be to take Pokrovsk, cut off the Ukrainian formations in Kursk, and make advancements towards Zaporozhie city, while trapping Ukrainian formations manning defenses on the front.