As Saturday will see the second anniversary of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Chinese strategists, economists and experts on international relations have recently given their reviews of the crisis. They have a series of key findings, including that Russia will not be defeated by Western sanctions and weapons, and the Russian economy could re-rise in the future; the war is likely to be a long-term conflict; and the West is losing faith and the US might abandon Ukraine if Donald Trump gets elected later this year.
Although China is not directly involved in the Ukraine crisis, Chinese elites and the public have been paying close attention to the situation, as they care about its impact on the Chinese economy and China’s ties with Russia and the West. China has always tried to contribute to the mediation of the crisis and eyed a post-war reconstruction for the two countries, analysts said. They noted that all of these have driven Chinese scholars to make efforts to find valuable information from the conflict and use it to guide China’s policymaking.
Profound changes
The Chongyang Institute for Financial Studies at the Renmin University of China (RDCY) held a senimar on Wednesday to release three major reports about the institute’s researches in the past two years about the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and the findings about future development of China-Russia relations, as well as Russia’s domestic market after Western companies pulled out from the country in 2022.
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“The most important conclusion that we have drawn in the report is that the Russia-Ukraine conflict will become a long-term fight,” Wang said, citing the newly-released report.
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It wasn’t this obvious in 2022. China stance was as usual misunderstood by USA, China was quiet about that, but it was in the best interest of China to help Russia (as we tankies see so clearly it’s not even worth mentioning), but USA seemed to be really surprised and outraged when China not only didn’t joined the sanctions but also started to expand trade with Russia in speed rarily precedented in history before. Same with India, USA seemed to take their participation in sanctions for granted but didn’t managed to see Modi government as highly opportunistic, oriented on their own interest, and having stronger contact with reality than the US govt. After those two supported Russia, and USA shown signs of weakness, other global south countries started to take more decided stance opposing USA since now they have something concrete to lean on and don’t risk being destroyed like Iraq or Libya.
But it could work, and regardless of real chance USA seemed to take it for granted that it would