I welcome input on my comment from others who know more than me about internal workings of Ukraine and Russia. I might be a dumbass.
Best case: Ceasefire starting right now so people stop getting killed, everyone keeps basically where they currently are, Ukraine no NATO and Russia stops occupying and lets the LPR and DPR self-direct.
Worst Case: War drags on for a a while, either side fully captures all of Ukraine. If Ukraine somehow wins completely then we’re basically back to 2015 and nothing has been solved, counter-insurgency from the Pro-Russia people, and far right militias getting free reign to kidnap/torture anyone they deem ‘collaborators’. If Russia wins then there’s enough people in the Western Ukraine where there’s going to be counter-insurgency and terrorism funded by the US. If Stalin couldn’t denazify Ukraine, then I’m not sure what Putin would be able to do.
Also concerning: all the debt Ukraine has from buying weapons, and all the shit they had to privatize. If their government exists they’re going to be an IMF colony, but that was happening slowly anyways if Russia didn’t invade. US does benefit because they sell natural gas, that’s why there’s many signs pointing to them helping Ukrainian Nationalists sabotage Nordstream (If they didn’t just do it themselves since it required diving experience according to Seymour Hirsch).
I’m not sure what’s realistic since the day-to-day horse-race stuff seems to largely be bunk. Obviously Russia isn’t imminently collapsing, but it seems like their gains slowed down.
Not sure how much longer countries in Europe will be willing to fund/support Ukraine, especially since no one really wanted to let them into NATO to begin with (Since Article 5 has only been used on Afghanistan after 911, and it’s not a given all members would abide by it when it comes to a real war instead of picking on farmers without a real military or a trading bloc). Also Ukraine drafting older and older doesn’t seem to bode well.
Hopefully both sides run out of steam at similar rates and negotiate something.
Probably a fairly reasonable take. I don’t think Ukraine winning completely is a likelihood short of NATO bringing troops to bear. Even then, they have depleted so many of their own resources, I am not sure that would be enough. Despite all the equipment they are receiving, they don’t have the people to man them. A lot of that equipment requires significant amounts of training, and while Ukraine had a contingent of NATO-trained troops at the start of the conflict, they don’t anymore. It doesn’t matter how good a tank you have (and let’s be honest, an Abrams tank is not what Ukraine needs right now) if all you have to fill it are farmers who should never have been pressed into the position they are in.
Regarding the debt, I believe I have seen stories about how ukrainian workers are basically going to be indentured servants after the war. Western nations are probably salivating over the cheap labour they stand to gain in the aftermath, as depressing as that sounds.
I welcome input on my comment from others who know more than me about internal workings of Ukraine and Russia. I might be a dumbass.
Best case: Ceasefire starting right now so people stop getting killed, everyone keeps basically where they currently are, Ukraine no NATO and Russia stops occupying and lets the LPR and DPR self-direct.
Worst Case: War drags on for a a while, either side fully captures all of Ukraine. If Ukraine somehow wins completely then we’re basically back to 2015 and nothing has been solved, counter-insurgency from the Pro-Russia people, and far right militias getting free reign to kidnap/torture anyone they deem ‘collaborators’. If Russia wins then there’s enough people in the Western Ukraine where there’s going to be counter-insurgency and terrorism funded by the US. If Stalin couldn’t denazify Ukraine, then I’m not sure what Putin would be able to do.
Also concerning: all the debt Ukraine has from buying weapons, and all the shit they had to privatize. If their government exists they’re going to be an IMF colony, but that was happening slowly anyways if Russia didn’t invade. US does benefit because they sell natural gas, that’s why there’s many signs pointing to them helping Ukrainian Nationalists sabotage Nordstream (If they didn’t just do it themselves since it required diving experience according to Seymour Hirsch).
I’m not sure what’s realistic since the day-to-day horse-race stuff seems to largely be bunk. Obviously Russia isn’t imminently collapsing, but it seems like their gains slowed down.
Not sure how much longer countries in Europe will be willing to fund/support Ukraine, especially since no one really wanted to let them into NATO to begin with (Since Article 5 has only been used on Afghanistan after 911, and it’s not a given all members would abide by it when it comes to a real war instead of picking on farmers without a real military or a trading bloc). Also Ukraine drafting older and older doesn’t seem to bode well.
Hopefully both sides run out of steam at similar rates and negotiate something.
Probably a fairly reasonable take. I don’t think Ukraine winning completely is a likelihood short of NATO bringing troops to bear. Even then, they have depleted so many of their own resources, I am not sure that would be enough. Despite all the equipment they are receiving, they don’t have the people to man them. A lot of that equipment requires significant amounts of training, and while Ukraine had a contingent of NATO-trained troops at the start of the conflict, they don’t anymore. It doesn’t matter how good a tank you have (and let’s be honest, an Abrams tank is not what Ukraine needs right now) if all you have to fill it are farmers who should never have been pressed into the position they are in.
Regarding the debt, I believe I have seen stories about how ukrainian workers are basically going to be indentured servants after the war. Western nations are probably salivating over the cheap labour they stand to gain in the aftermath, as depressing as that sounds.