Please keep related news in this thread rather than making separate posts. Remember to include sources and avoid spreading rumours.
Please keep related news in this thread rather than making separate posts. Remember to include sources and avoid spreading rumours.
Well, they would still have Erdogan as a backer, but we all know how fickle he is.
My impression is that the current Al-Qaeda regime in Damascus is quite fragile and its hold over Syria tenuous at best. I can’t imagine they have much popular support given that they took over the country in large part with imported jihadist mercenaries from Central Asia. They are largely propped up by foreign patrons.
Then again this could change if there is some kind of internal coup and a more nationalistic and less sectarian faction takes over. Which might very well happen once the US and the Zionists approach defeat and it becomes clear that Jolani bet on the losing side. If that kind of palace coup happens where they decide to get rid of Jolani and switch to the winning side, it could legitimize and consolidate the new regime. We could see a Syrian version of what we have now in Afghanistan.
I don’t think the Jolani regime could transition into a secular Nationalist project or contain the more extremist elements. His basis of power is from these foreign Takfeeris who would refuse to cooperate with a moderating force. They’d turn against HTS if it tried to restrict their activities.
Jolani tries to maintain his image by saying that the alawites and other minorities being massacred are Assad remnants, while also putting all the blame onto these takfeeris as independent actors not being commanded by HTS.
The Taliban is still fighting ISIS and I’d argue they have more direct control within Afghanistan then Jolani does in Syria. Also the majority of organic support that does exist for the terrorist regime comes from nomadic Arab tribes with similiar fundamentalist views. They are the internal elements who started the massacre in Sweida against the Druze. Once again, if Jolani tried to moderate them like Assad had then they’d revolt and join forces with the Takfeeris.
I don’t think Jolani can maintain power without upholding this Salafi base of support, so I do not think his regime will moderate.