I’m usually a “Sane Trump Theory” supporter, but I see no outcome where the US achieves strategic gains in this one. Even with successful leadership assassination and significant damage to Iran’s current nuclear capabilities, it’ll just be kicking the can down the road and galvanising even more the Iranian people against the US. There’s no way an outright occupation of Iran will happen.
But most NATO substrates have also designated the IRGC as a terrorist org, which I think would imply that the offensive is somehow strategically important. I don’t like the whole depoliticising “distraction from Epstein” narrative, but I’m struggling to come up with alternatives here.
I’d have to give some pushback on this theory because China’s top three imports are from Russia, the Gulf states, and Iraq, followed by Canada and the US.
The US already controls the gulf states and Iraq. China neighbours Russia. Controlling Iran doesn’t do anything in cutting off petroleum to China.
The US doesn’t control the Golf states and Iraq to that point that you are suggesting. Some Gulf states even engage in payments in Yuan instead of the USD. As for Iraq, you can see the lack of control when the US protested and even threaten Iraquis for their choice on their prime minister.
Any of these top oil exporter will leave the US if provided with a different material framework such as the Eurasian energy chain proposed through BRICs. The US fears that energy shock so that’s why they decided to attack Venezuela to control a certain supply closest to them.
The US has literal military bases in the gulf states. All the weapons they use are from the west.
The Iraq war was to literally control Iraqi oil companies, and they currently do. Otherwise they wouldn’t be be able to do this:
https://www.ctvnews.ca/business/article/chevron-seeks-better-terms-from-iraq-before-taking-over-lukoil-oilfield-reuters-sources-say/
If they want to cut off energy to China (say in the event of war, etc) it’d be trivial. They don’t need to take over Iran to do so. They can simply strike from where they are.
Even if they are occupied with those military bases, it didn’t stop the Gulf states to seek China or to change their payment currency to Yuan. Also, remember that the bombing of Qatar changed them and it lead them to seek other defense pacts. Soon, we will see those changes.
As for Iraq, they are in the process of dismantling those US military bases so the only powerful control left is in the economic area. All of that control will wither out when there are viable material alternatives to Western dominated trade routes and the West’s economic system. That’s why the Eurasian energy chain is very important.
Just like any sanctions against Israel didn’t have any effect due to Western backing, Western sanctions will no longer have any effect in West Asian countries if strong material alternatives to the Western economic system appear.