I’m usually a “Sane Trump Theory” supporter, but I see no outcome where the US achieves strategic gains in this one. Even with successful leadership assassination and significant damage to Iran’s current nuclear capabilities, it’ll just be kicking the can down the road and galvanising even more the Iranian people against the US. There’s no way an outright occupation of Iran will happen.
But most NATO substrates have also designated the IRGC as a terrorist org, which I think would imply that the offensive is somehow strategically important. I don’t like the whole depoliticising “distraction from Epstein” narrative, but I’m struggling to come up with alternatives here.
Even if they are occupied with those military bases, it didn’t stop the Gulf states to seek China or to change their payment currency to Yuan. Also, remember that the bombing of Qatar changed them and it lead them to seek other defense pacts. Soon, we will see those changes.
As for Iraq, they are in the process of dismantling those US military bases so the only powerful control left is in the economic area. All of that control will wither out when there are viable material alternatives to Western dominated trade routes and the West’s economic system. That’s why the Eurasian energy chain is very important.
Just like any sanctions against Israel didn’t have any effect due to Western backing, Western sanctions will no longer have any effect in West Asian countries if strong material alternatives to the Western economic system appear.