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The rare earth problem can’t be addressed. China will decide how it plays out. In one sense, it seems like they will string the US along. In another it seems like they will just let the US starve. In another it seems like they’ll just let it flow as long it serves their development goals. I have hunches, but really it’s up to their strategies.
One way it could work is that China becomes an exporter to the US for these things in a sort of mutual agreement for the US bubble to maintain. It could be that a.i. in the US is running off Huawei in 3 years. I don’t really know.
I think it’s all doomed for the US project. But it’s not next year unless something big happens. And it’s unlikely to be in 2027, but things are operating on a 3-month cycle so 2027 could be the year given what happens next year. I don’t really know.
I just think the US has sufficient positioning, sufficient reserves, sufficient capabilities and capacities, and sufficient drice to innovate that it can keep this going for a while.
I expect that China will prioritize domestic use, because why wouldn’t they. And if that’s going to be the case then it’s no longer a question of politics, the economics are going to be the deciding factor here. Chinese businesses are going to need rare earths as inputs, and there won’t be enough left to export. It’s really that simple in my opinion. Even if CPC wanted to help the US out for some reason, it would be politically impossible for them to say we’re going to starve our own industries to feed the US.
I agree it’s unlikely that this particular problem will surface in the next couple of years. I expect the big problems will start closer to 2030 when we start seeing serious supply shortages and the current crop of chips starts burning out. But a lot of other things can happen before then as well. The US economy is clearly in a very fragile state right now, and there could be any number of black swan events before this particular bottleneck is hit.
The rare earth problem can’t be addressed. China will decide how it plays out. In one sense, it seems like they will string the US along. In another it seems like they will just let the US starve. In another it seems like they’ll just let it flow as long it serves their development goals. I have hunches, but really it’s up to their strategies.
One way it could work is that China becomes an exporter to the US for these things in a sort of mutual agreement for the US bubble to maintain. It could be that a.i. in the US is running off Huawei in 3 years. I don’t really know.
I think it’s all doomed for the US project. But it’s not next year unless something big happens. And it’s unlikely to be in 2027, but things are operating on a 3-month cycle so 2027 could be the year given what happens next year. I don’t really know.
I just think the US has sufficient positioning, sufficient reserves, sufficient capabilities and capacities, and sufficient drice to innovate that it can keep this going for a while.
I expect that China will prioritize domestic use, because why wouldn’t they. And if that’s going to be the case then it’s no longer a question of politics, the economics are going to be the deciding factor here. Chinese businesses are going to need rare earths as inputs, and there won’t be enough left to export. It’s really that simple in my opinion. Even if CPC wanted to help the US out for some reason, it would be politically impossible for them to say we’re going to starve our own industries to feed the US.
I agree it’s unlikely that this particular problem will surface in the next couple of years. I expect the big problems will start closer to 2030 when we start seeing serious supply shortages and the current crop of chips starts burning out. But a lot of other things can happen before then as well. The US economy is clearly in a very fragile state right now, and there could be any number of black swan events before this particular bottleneck is hit.
Yes. This matches my thinking as well.