Businesses have been canceling orders for products from China after Trump imposed a 145% tariff on most Chinese imports, risking product shortages for American consumers.
Tough decisions for the US administration. They could drop the tariffs, promise not to continue, try to get back what they had as fast as possible, and admit to making a mistake (USian humility challenge: impossible). Or they could continue to act like they are immune to consequences and watch as approval ratings reach single digits and people start wondering what the point is of the government, if it can’t even get them their consumer goods to numb the pain of living in an alienated indigenous burial ground.
Realistically though, even if they tried to walk back everything they did, will anybody trust them again? The US political system is incredibly chaotic, and policy can do a complete 180 from one day to another. I’d argue the US just passed an event horizon where decline becomes irreversible.
I think a lot of entities would try to “go back to normal” whether they actually trust the US or not, if for no other reason than not wanting to have to retool complex business logistics that they’ve been doing. But also, the longer the US admin drags this on, the more businesses are going to find alternatives to what they were doing and then not want to disrupt that unless the US offers something really enticing to come back (which they probably can’t). So either way, I think it comes out to you having the right idea, that there’s a certain degree of “it can’t be fully walked back.” But I do think they could still partially walk it back, if they bowed and apologized, so to speak (but since I don’t expect that to happen while the US continues to be the US entity, least of all from someone as openly pompous as Trump, it’s really just hypothetical - I figure there’s a slim chance they try to walk it all back and then lie about how they made some incredible deal, but that’s about it).
I agree, trade will resume up to a point, but I expect that everybody will be thinking how they can derisk themselves going forward. So, my expectation is that trade with the US will continue to decline, and it’s going to be a self reinforcing phenomenon.
Realistically though, even if they tried to walk back everything they did, will anybody trust them again?
Honestly? Highly doubtful. Some countries might pretend for a bit to keep trade moving while they secure alternatives (see Vietnam) but I highly doubt that the world will ever trust the USA again without a full revolution.
Tough decisions for the US administration. They could drop the tariffs, promise not to continue, try to get back what they had as fast as possible, and admit to making a mistake (USian humility challenge: impossible). Or they could continue to act like they are immune to consequences and watch as approval ratings reach single digits and people start wondering what the point is of the government, if it can’t even get them their consumer goods to numb the pain of living in an alienated indigenous burial ground.
Realistically though, even if they tried to walk back everything they did, will anybody trust them again? The US political system is incredibly chaotic, and policy can do a complete 180 from one day to another. I’d argue the US just passed an event horizon where decline becomes irreversible.
I think a lot of entities would try to “go back to normal” whether they actually trust the US or not, if for no other reason than not wanting to have to retool complex business logistics that they’ve been doing. But also, the longer the US admin drags this on, the more businesses are going to find alternatives to what they were doing and then not want to disrupt that unless the US offers something really enticing to come back (which they probably can’t). So either way, I think it comes out to you having the right idea, that there’s a certain degree of “it can’t be fully walked back.” But I do think they could still partially walk it back, if they bowed and apologized, so to speak (but since I don’t expect that to happen while the US continues to be the US entity, least of all from someone as openly pompous as Trump, it’s really just hypothetical - I figure there’s a slim chance they try to walk it all back and then lie about how they made some incredible deal, but that’s about it).
I agree, trade will resume up to a point, but I expect that everybody will be thinking how they can derisk themselves going forward. So, my expectation is that trade with the US will continue to decline, and it’s going to be a self reinforcing phenomenon.
Honestly? Highly doubtful. Some countries might pretend for a bit to keep trade moving while they secure alternatives (see Vietnam) but I highly doubt that the world will ever trust the USA again without a full revolution.
that’s my expectation as well