Yeah, I dunno. This feels like textbook Democrat incompetence, which to me says it’s stage . managed with marginal players like Harris, AOC and Bernie getting little and incorrect guidance and Obama, Pelosi, and Biden setting the stage for each new move. It’s somewhat convenient that Biden didn’t resign until the Republican VP pick. It’s also sort of telling that Vance was given almost zero notice, which to me says cross-party stage management as Biden’s resignation needed to hit a timeline, he needed to make an endorsement, and the endorsement was going to be dependent on the Republican VP pick.
I think we need to look at this from the perspective of relationships between Japanese leaders and USA leaders, not between Japanese leaders and the USA media circus.
Japanese leaders, based on some of their actions over the last year, seem to be of two minds: pro-USA and pro-China/anti-imperialism. This is likely the result of a combination of disparate ideologies among leaders but also different relationships with USA leadership. There are likely USA leaders saying “stay the course, we are still in control” and other leaders saying “buckle up, pay your way, defend yourself, we won’t come to your aid, you will come to ours”.
I think Biden represents the former and Trump represents the latter. Who is (s)elected will likely be stage managed by the geopolitical strategists about which way the winds of history are blowing. So when Biden bows out, it’s likely part of a larger relationship understanding in Japanese leadership that this means the USA strategy is shifting towards command and control to defend its interests and the expense of vassals. This makes already existing Japanese leadership theories about decoupling more ascendant.
I imagine Japanese politicians are primarily concerned about long term economic stability. If US is seen to be an unstable partner, then it makes sense that they would want to start making diplomatic overtures to China now. The media circus is itself a symptom of internal political instability I would argue. The whole thing exudes profound incompetence on the part of the US political class.
A related aspect here is the whole economic/tech war with China that US drumming up. It puts countries like Japan in a very difficult position because they’re so dependent on China for trade. For example, something like 40% of Japanese chips go to China. When US announced that they’re going to force companies using US tech to stop selling chips to China Micron stock dropped nearly 10%. Going along with that would be economic suicide. What’s worse is that this encourages China to just develop their own domestic tech, and once that’s done they have no need for imports regardless of what the political situation is going to look like. In fact, they’re likely to become a competitor to Japan at that point. And this is just one sector of the economy.
So, I think there’s a combination of fear of political instability within the US along with a concern over US geopolitical games having a negative impact on Japan’s economy.
Yeah, I dunno. This feels like textbook Democrat incompetence, which to me says it’s stage . managed with marginal players like Harris, AOC and Bernie getting little and incorrect guidance and Obama, Pelosi, and Biden setting the stage for each new move. It’s somewhat convenient that Biden didn’t resign until the Republican VP pick. It’s also sort of telling that Vance was given almost zero notice, which to me says cross-party stage management as Biden’s resignation needed to hit a timeline, he needed to make an endorsement, and the endorsement was going to be dependent on the Republican VP pick.
I think we need to look at this from the perspective of relationships between Japanese leaders and USA leaders, not between Japanese leaders and the USA media circus.
Japanese leaders, based on some of their actions over the last year, seem to be of two minds: pro-USA and pro-China/anti-imperialism. This is likely the result of a combination of disparate ideologies among leaders but also different relationships with USA leadership. There are likely USA leaders saying “stay the course, we are still in control” and other leaders saying “buckle up, pay your way, defend yourself, we won’t come to your aid, you will come to ours”.
I think Biden represents the former and Trump represents the latter. Who is (s)elected will likely be stage managed by the geopolitical strategists about which way the winds of history are blowing. So when Biden bows out, it’s likely part of a larger relationship understanding in Japanese leadership that this means the USA strategy is shifting towards command and control to defend its interests and the expense of vassals. This makes already existing Japanese leadership theories about decoupling more ascendant.
But ya know. It’s all speculation
I imagine Japanese politicians are primarily concerned about long term economic stability. If US is seen to be an unstable partner, then it makes sense that they would want to start making diplomatic overtures to China now. The media circus is itself a symptom of internal political instability I would argue. The whole thing exudes profound incompetence on the part of the US political class.
A related aspect here is the whole economic/tech war with China that US drumming up. It puts countries like Japan in a very difficult position because they’re so dependent on China for trade. For example, something like 40% of Japanese chips go to China. When US announced that they’re going to force companies using US tech to stop selling chips to China Micron stock dropped nearly 10%. Going along with that would be economic suicide. What’s worse is that this encourages China to just develop their own domestic tech, and once that’s done they have no need for imports regardless of what the political situation is going to look like. In fact, they’re likely to become a competitor to Japan at that point. And this is just one sector of the economy.
So, I think there’s a combination of fear of political instability within the US along with a concern over US geopolitical games having a negative impact on Japan’s economy.