Russian President Vladimir Putin (third from left) with Central Asian counterparts at a recent CIS summit, Kyrgyzstan, Oct 12, 2023 Russia’s stunning victory in the battle of Avdeevka and the rout of the Ukrainian military, boosts the credibility of Russia as provider of security for the Central Asian region. The point is not lost … Continue reading "Russia’s victory in Ukraine resonates in Central Asia"
Bit early to talk about victory, isn’t it?
In some ways yes, in other ways no. Battlefield wise the article refers specifically to the victory in the battle for Avdeyevka. But the author of the “Indian Punchline” publication is a former Indian diplomat and he is looking at the bigger geopolitical picture in which the case can certainly be made that although fighting is still ongoing the trajectory is clear and Russia has in a general sense prevailed against NATO, not just by withstanding the sanctions warfare but also by not being able to be dislodged and even continuing to advance in Ukraine despite the collective military support of all of NATO. With NATO essentially controlling the Ukrainian army, providing it with ISR and targeting, and having all but emptied Western arsenals to give all they had to Ukraine and still not managing to gain the upper hand over Russia, that cannot be called anything other than a defeat of NATO by Russia. And that has real impacts in geopolitics which can be observed in how other countries are now interacting with Russia.
The heads of multiple European countries are currently calling to “never accept” the current situation and enter the war themselves. Hungary finally got whatever they were bargaining for behind close doors and permitted Sweden into nato.
I’m sure a former diplomat would have a better eye for these things than I would, but isn’t it too early - if at all sensible - to talk about “defeat of NATO by Russia”? I don’t mean to sound defeatist, but this sounds like counting chickens before they roost.
To me it looks like the Europeans’ rhetoric is as empty as their arsenals. After Macron hinted at European troops maybe entering Ukraine over half a dozen other European countries immediately responded and said that would not be happening. That alone shows that they are not nearly as united or as confident as they want you to believe. It seems like Russia is more than willing to call their bluffs. Of course we should always remain cautious and not “count our chickens before they hatch” as you say, things can always develop in unexpected directions, but a lot of the world outside of the collective West is already looking at Russia as the winners. Russia showed that it is possible to stand up to the Western hegemony and continue to thrive, and this has had a tectonic impact on the geopolitical scene.