So it’s been two years and the majority of the US still pushes Wuhan as the origin of the pandemic.

What is the counter-narrative/truth to this position ? Any evidence come up in the last couple of years? Thank you.

  • @RateAndStevolution
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    162 years ago

    Based on the genetics found so far it wasn’t from a lab. If it were we would expect to see larger changes from the wild virus which would make it more contagious, because we aren’t great at doing super small controlled changes in viruses, and there wouldn’t be a great way to predict that behavior unless we stuck the exact same genetics that let the common cold recognize human cells into a coronavirus. Which would also be traceable to editing.

    It’s reasonable to say it originated in SE Asia based on the similarities that 19 has to other strains of coronavirus. There’s still uncertainty about where exactly it could have come from. Large parts of Southern China, Vietnam, Laos and other countries are mountainous and heavily forested. This makes them hard to explore and sample well. Meanwhile the people living in these areas may have come into contact with the virus at any point, and it could spread from there while never being well documented due to the remoteness in some areas. China’s development makes it more likely it was found easier, and the most similar strains have been found in Laos, so that may well be the origin, but unless there’s better sampling we’re not likely to ever find out.

    China investing in the B&R should help make it less and more likely in different ways. The access to facilities they are providing make it more likely to be caught earlier. However, because people are encroaching on natural environments contact with novel viruses are more likely to occur.