A few weeks ago the U.S. Army War College released a paper which was an urgent call for the U.S. armed forces to adapt to the modern style of warfare being innovated in the Ukrainian conflict. The paper made the rounds due to some startling admissions, which we’ll get to. But what’s most important to understand is that the paper represents a general major shift in thinking propagating throughout the entire sphere of the Atlanticist West, and was released in concert with several other key thinktank pieces and policy shifts announcement from the EU, NATO, etc., which holistically represent a mass internal panic deep within the structures of the West, and a subsequent need to urgently change their strategy.

A two parter really: in the first half an in-depth look at potential developments in US military policies prompted by the Ukraine war.

Nothing particularly shocking here for those who have been paying attention and as the analysis says it is unlikely that the US can turn its military decline around. (Ignore the insert by the conservative author about identity politics and quotas in the US military, none of that has no relevance or bearing on anything being discussed here; the rest of the article is solid.)

The more interesting part comes in the second half with the discussion of a recent RAND think tank paper that reveals how the Atlanticists are desperate to try and find ways to push Russia’s buttons to get them to escalate, as things are not going well for the West in Ukraine and they desperately need a PR win and a casus belli for more direct intervention.

Just as with previous papers from this neocon think tank, such as the one about “extending Russia” which provided a roadmap to provoking conflict in Ukraine which was followed almost to the letter, we can expect most of their proposals for various escalations and provocations to be implemented sooner or later.

  • cfgaussianOP
    81·
    1 year ago

    In my opinion, if there are people who think that way they are very much miscalculating. Instead of rallying renewed western support behind the war on Russia, what provoking Russia to intervene in the Baltics would do is expose NATO’s alleged commitment to defense of its members as a bluff. With the exception of a few delusional fanatics like the UK, the other Baltics and maybe Poland, the rest of NATO would likely chicken out. Or can you see Germany and France choosing to fight a war with Russia over some Baltic backwater? Especially when Russia will have clearly and severely been provoked…

    And the US doesn’t want to commit its own military to a massive war in Europe because they need everything they have and more for the much more important war they want to have with China. It would be an unmitigated disaster for whoever tried to send their own troops to fight Russia and the backlash at home over such horrific casualties would be enormous. NATO would likely disintegrate as a result. And with the exception of a few diehard anti-Russia freaks i suspect most of NATO knows this so they will always stop just short of actually forcing Russia to go to war with a NATO country.

    Just my opinion. Can’t say i’m eager to have it put to the test though, the risks for an uncontrollable escalation are still considerable.

    • redtea
      8·
      1 year ago

      Great points. I really hope you’re right that they don’t test the relationship. I think you are right about what would happen to the organisation. But it wouldn’t be without it’s casualties.