I wonder how effective any deal with the current ukrainian government (or a continuiation of it) would be. It’s not like they have blatantly broken previous agreements. Since Russia isn’t looking to just annex the whole of Ukraine, I wonder what end goal Putin is planning to this war.
There can be no deals made with the current regime in Kiev and the Russians know this. They are not even looking for a deal with the Europeans anymore because most these current governments we have in Europe are basically agreement incapable as well. Plus none of them really have any sovereignty. Russia is looking for a deal with the only real decision maker on the other side which is the US. I also wouldn’t exclude anymore the possibility of Russia deciding to do away with Ukraine entirely, but that depends on how obstinate the Americans decide to be. If they insist on continuing to refuse to negotiate in earnest over the European security arrangements (and one of the Russian conditions will likely be a NATO pullback to 1998 positions), then Russia may go all the way and place a huge force right on the Polish border, which it can now do as it is in the process of massively expanding its armed forces and turning their huge military industrial complex back on. Then the US will have a choice: either to try and match the Russian buildup like in the cold war even though what they really want is to confront China in the Pacific, all this while the West sinks deeper into economic crisis and deindustrialization (how will they afford to pay for a massive army in Europe, who will produce their armaments and ammunition?)…or to finally make a deal with Russia. The Europeans being only vassals will have to bear whatever the two big powers decide.
I wonder how effective any deal with the current ukrainian government (or a continuiation of it) would be. It’s not like they have blatantly broken previous agreements. Since Russia isn’t looking to just annex the whole of Ukraine, I wonder what end goal Putin is planning to this war.
There can be no deals made with the current regime in Kiev and the Russians know this. They are not even looking for a deal with the Europeans anymore because most these current governments we have in Europe are basically agreement incapable as well. Plus none of them really have any sovereignty. Russia is looking for a deal with the only real decision maker on the other side which is the US. I also wouldn’t exclude anymore the possibility of Russia deciding to do away with Ukraine entirely, but that depends on how obstinate the Americans decide to be. If they insist on continuing to refuse to negotiate in earnest over the European security arrangements (and one of the Russian conditions will likely be a NATO pullback to 1998 positions), then Russia may go all the way and place a huge force right on the Polish border, which it can now do as it is in the process of massively expanding its armed forces and turning their huge military industrial complex back on. Then the US will have a choice: either to try and match the Russian buildup like in the cold war even though what they really want is to confront China in the Pacific, all this while the West sinks deeper into economic crisis and deindustrialization (how will they afford to pay for a massive army in Europe, who will produce their armaments and ammunition?)…or to finally make a deal with Russia. The Europeans being only vassals will have to bear whatever the two big powers decide.