Ukrainian forces have managed to take 8 villages, one of which is literally named “5 houses”. These villages stand in 2 small separate areas (30 square km total) on the Zaporozhian front, and both areas are in front of the main Russian defensive lines. Meaning the main Russian defenses have not been breached and after more than a month of fighting and thousands of casualties, Ukraine achieved none of its operational objectives. Meanwhile, Russian forces have initiated their own attacks on the North and around Bakhmut, which are rapidly making gains.
Last week, the US tried making overtures for possible negotiations (take the areas you want and let Ukraine join NATO), which Russia declined mockingly. It is not in Russia’s interests to freeze the conflict. Russia probably does not want to annex the whole of Ukraine, but the way the war is going, they just might. At the very least they are in a position to enforce all their terms (annex Russian-speaking territories, denazify Ukraine and impose Ukrainian neutrality). On the other hand Ukraine is starting to recognize that it can’t keep this up, and would ideally like a ceasefire so it can rearm itself (as happened after the Minsk accords as Angela Merkel admits).
Russia has around 30 to 40 thousand dead. Ukraine has closer to half a million dead, and probably as many wounded. From Russian Defence Mjnistry press releases, Ukraine is losing on average 500 soldiers per day. Even US sources are begrudgingly admitting that Ukraine can not win as it is fighting against a better equipped, better coordinated, more technologically advanced, and more populous army.
The Ukrainians and Russians don’t release their own, but the Russians do release daily what they’ve inflicted on the Ukrainians, which is where I’ve got the average. By that average, and taking into account Bakhmut and the current disastrous counter-offensive, the Ukrainians have lost around 200 000 dead this year alone.
We also know for sure that there are at least 50 000 Ukrainian amputees, as advertised by US prosthetics companies that have been servicing them. Generally, in modern war, the number of amputees is about a fifth of the wounded and the wounded is about equal to the number of dead. So at least a quarter million dead Ukrainians.
Finally, these estimates allign with US internal estimates (from intelligence services and the Pentagon) and have been quoted by US officials in leaked documents. They recognize that the Russians have lost around 50 000 or less dead, and that the kill ratio is 1 Russian for 8-10 Ukrainian. So by this estimate, we get 400-500 000 dead Ukrainians.
Last week, the US tried making overtures for possible negotiations (take the areas you want and let Ukraine join NATO), which Russia declined mockingly. It is not in Russia’s interests to freeze the conflict. Russia probably does not want to annex the whole of Ukraine, but the way the war is going, they just might. At the very least they are in a position to enforce all their terms (annex Russian-speaking territories, denazify Ukraine and impose Ukrainian neutrality). On the other hand Ukraine is starting to recognize that it can’t keep this up, and would ideally like a ceasefire so it can rearm itself (as happened after the Minsk accords as Angela Merkel admits).
Russia has around 30 to 40 thousand dead. Ukraine has closer to half a million dead, and probably as many wounded. From Russian Defence Mjnistry press releases, Ukraine is losing on average 500 soldiers per day. Even US sources are begrudgingly admitting that Ukraine can not win as it is fighting against a better equipped, better coordinated, more technologically advanced, and more populous army.
Where are you getting your casualty estimates? I haven’t followed that because it’s so hard to determine what source is reliable.
The Ukrainians and Russians don’t release their own, but the Russians do release daily what they’ve inflicted on the Ukrainians, which is where I’ve got the average. By that average, and taking into account Bakhmut and the current disastrous counter-offensive, the Ukrainians have lost around 200 000 dead this year alone.
We also know for sure that there are at least 50 000 Ukrainian amputees, as advertised by US prosthetics companies that have been servicing them. Generally, in modern war, the number of amputees is about a fifth of the wounded and the wounded is about equal to the number of dead. So at least a quarter million dead Ukrainians.
Finally, these estimates allign with US internal estimates (from intelligence services and the Pentagon) and have been quoted by US officials in leaked documents. They recognize that the Russians have lost around 50 000 or less dead, and that the kill ratio is 1 Russian for 8-10 Ukrainian. So by this estimate, we get 400-500 000 dead Ukrainians.
Yeah, Ukrainian neutrality is a non-negotiable for the RF. That seems to be primary point of the war in the first place.