I’m usually a “Sane Trump Theory” supporter, but I see no outcome where the US achieves strategic gains in this one. Even with successful leadership assassination and significant damage to Iran’s current nuclear capabilities, it’ll just be kicking the can down the road and galvanising even more the Iranian people against the US. There’s no way an outright occupation of Iran will happen.
But most NATO substrates have also designated the IRGC as a terrorist org, which I think would imply that the offensive is somehow strategically important. I don’t like the whole depoliticising “distraction from Epstein” narrative, but I’m struggling to come up with alternatives here.
I think Escobar’s analysis is pretty uncontroversial at this point. Brian Berletic has been saying much of the same. I think it’s a good framework for understanding the psychotic urgency of the moment. Although I think there are more history and layers to it, especially with regard to Israel. The contradictions of the Zionist project in occupied Palestine have lead to very desperate behavior on the part of the Zios and the US to protect power projection in West Asia.
The historical intent of the US regarding Iran since 1979 is pretty clear: Saddam, Iran-Iraq War, the “War on Terror”, Operation Timber-Sycamore, the 30+ year myth of a “nuclear threat”, etc. Chiefly observed through the lens of 911 and Timber-Sycamore, it seems Iran has been in the crosshairs of a larger strategy for a long time. The thwarting of Syrian regime change by Russia changed the US imperial calculus a lot and it has taken time to reposition.
The use of Operation Al-Aqsa Flood as an excuse to launch a genocide had the expected consequence of drawing in a larger conflict and creating enough chaos and instability to create additional pretexts for regional war, planned regime change – notably in Syria. All these policy papers and CFR fucks talked about doing that to open up Iran, and ofc as soon as that happens Shitrael launches a sneak attack on Iran… The propagandists go into overdrive… The US bombs Iran… There’s been a low-grade Shitraeli war, sabotage and terrorism campaign going on in Iran… Economic warfare which culminated in a larger color revolution operation last month.
And…
Iran is still standing, still building out trade networks with Russia and China. Still selling it’s own oil. Still advancing and resisting imperialism. Still looming over the collapse of the Zionist project.
It’s gotta be driving the Fourth Reich crazy. The desire to either steal Iran’s oil, or at least destroy them as a competitor goes back decades. I think the urgent nature of cutting off oil from Venezuela and Iran to China/Russia, ultimately has everything to do with the US marinading in the Wolfowitz Doctrine mindset for so long.