I’m usually a “Sane Trump Theory” supporter, but I see no outcome where the US achieves strategic gains in this one. Even with successful leadership assassination and significant damage to Iran’s current nuclear capabilities, it’ll just be kicking the can down the road and galvanising even more the Iranian people against the US. There’s no way an outright occupation of Iran will happen.
But most NATO substrates have also designated the IRGC as a terrorist org, which I think would imply that the offensive is somehow strategically important. I don’t like the whole depoliticising “distraction from Epstein” narrative, but I’m struggling to come up with alternatives here.
That makes a lot of sense, I think this is the correct read. I remember reading something similar during the fall of Assad’s government and attacks on Lebanon that it would also impact that same corridor. With that in mind, even bombing Iran into complete anarchy would be a sufficient strategic victory to the US if a more tactical approach fails.
Edit: read the whole thing, and it’s relieving to know that Russia and China have mutual defense agreements with Iran. Hopefully 2026 is the year those CENTCOM carriers sink to the bottom of the ocean.