Oh, I agree with that, absolutely. Although Russia did argue it didn’t intervene in the previous eight years precisely since it’d be vilified - they waited until there was no other choice. Still, I think it’ll be harder to turn Taiwan into an Ukraine - not even because of China, but the island itself is also losing profits. And its capitalists have their own interests to consider.
I think there won’t be a war simply because everyone knows that the only scenario where China “loses” is one where the world as a whole loses. The US may huff and puff, but unless Dementia Joe or some other crazy idiot doesn’t decide to do anything stupid, it’ll end with a sigh.
Russia was unprepared both economically and militarily in 2014 for a full scale confrontation with the collective West. And it was still holding out hope that the Minsk agreements would be fulfilled. Both of those factors had changed by 2022.
I hope you’re right about Taiwan. I for one don’t see the US giving it up without a fight. At minimum i believe they will try to destroy as much of Taiwan’s economic potential as possible if it becomes clear that reunification is inevitable.
The Banderites are doing the same to the parts of Eastern Ukraine which it is clear they cannot hold on to: they are demolishing everything that they can’t have. The US will likely destroy Taiwan’s semiconductor industries one way or another before they fall into Beijing’s hands.
Not that that will matter. Mainland China’s own semiconductor manufacturing will by then have already caught up with or surpassed Taiwan’s.
I only feel bad for the Chinese people in Taiwan, because like you said, chances are that even if what I think will happen turns out to be how it’d go (the US leaves after a long, expensive standoff - maybe even a skirmish), they’d take everything not bolted to the floor as “compensation” and poison the population one last time in the hopes China would have to handle some small insurgency even after they’re long gone.
Oh, I agree with that, absolutely. Although Russia did argue it didn’t intervene in the previous eight years precisely since it’d be vilified - they waited until there was no other choice. Still, I think it’ll be harder to turn Taiwan into an Ukraine - not even because of China, but the island itself is also losing profits. And its capitalists have their own interests to consider.
I think there won’t be a war simply because everyone knows that the only scenario where China “loses” is one where the world as a whole loses. The US may huff and puff, but unless Dementia Joe or some other crazy idiot doesn’t decide to do anything stupid, it’ll end with a sigh.
Russia was unprepared both economically and militarily in 2014 for a full scale confrontation with the collective West. And it was still holding out hope that the Minsk agreements would be fulfilled. Both of those factors had changed by 2022.
I hope you’re right about Taiwan. I for one don’t see the US giving it up without a fight. At minimum i believe they will try to destroy as much of Taiwan’s economic potential as possible if it becomes clear that reunification is inevitable.
The Banderites are doing the same to the parts of Eastern Ukraine which it is clear they cannot hold on to: they are demolishing everything that they can’t have. The US will likely destroy Taiwan’s semiconductor industries one way or another before they fall into Beijing’s hands.
Not that that will matter. Mainland China’s own semiconductor manufacturing will by then have already caught up with or surpassed Taiwan’s.
I only feel bad for the Chinese people in Taiwan, because like you said, chances are that even if what I think will happen turns out to be how it’d go (the US leaves after a long, expensive standoff - maybe even a skirmish), they’d take everything not bolted to the floor as “compensation” and poison the population one last time in the hopes China would have to handle some small insurgency even after they’re long gone.
I was thinking more like they would plant bombs in the factories and detonate them if PLA troops try to take them.
That is also a possibility, especially if they depart in a rush.