The U.S. dual approach

The U.S. has maintained a dual strategy in Syria, supporting Kurdish-led SDF forces in the east while indirectly benefiting from HTS advances against Assad. This approach underscores Washington’s broader goal of countering Iranian influence and preventing the resurgence of extremist groups in the region.

The SDF’s control over key territories reflects U.S. intent to establish a buffer zone that disrupts Iranian and Assad government logistics. However, the coexistence of HTS and SDF forces introduces a paradox. While the two groups have divergent ideologies and agendas, their parallel gains have reshaped the Syrian map in ways that align with U.S. strategic objectives.

President-elect Donald Trump’s recent remarks suggest a potential shift in U.S. policy, adding another layer of uncertainty. A reduced American footprint in Syria could create a power vacuum, intensifying competition among regional actors, including Türkiye, to fill the void.

Syria’s fragmentation poses significant challenges for the Middle East. The country’s territorial divisions – HTS dominance in the west, SDF control in the east, and remnants of Assad loyalists along the coast – reflect a broader trend of disintegration. This new reality could spur similar movements in neighboring countries, destabilizing the region further.

For Türkiye, the conflict’s outcome directly impacts national security. Ankara must navigate the delicate dynamics of engaging with HTS while countering Kurdish ambitions. Moreover, managing the influx of refugees and ensuring stability along its border remains paramount.

For the U.S., the post-Assad landscape offers opportunities and challenges. While the weakening of Iran’s foothold in Syria aligns with U.S. objectives, sustaining influence in a fractured country requires a long-term commitment to supporting local partners and preventing the rise of new threats.

Syria’s current trajectory raises profound questions about its future. The fall of Assad has not brought clarity but intensified uncertainties about governance, territorial integrity and regional stability. The international community, particularly Türkiye and the U.S., must work collaboratively to address these challenges, prioritize humanitarian aid and support mechanisms for inclusive governance.

Ultimately, Syria’s transformation will shape the Middle East for decades. Whether the nation emerges from this turmoil as a unified state or succumbs to prolonged fragmentation depends on the actions of key stakeholders and the resilience of its people.