IMO for both Taiwan and Korea, the question becomes whether the US is going to bite the bullet and actually go for open conflict with China (in both cases). When you look at what the US does to North Korea- or China- or honestly even Russia and the historical Soviet Union, etc… it really is a game of it constantly swinging its fist full force at other countries’ faces, only to metaphorically pull back at the last second.

Western media and politicians, and even military officials are not exactly hiding their plans/considerations- they expect a war with China, sooner (5~ years max) than later, because the longer the wait the further China and the rest of humanity develops (ie. the harder it will be to slaughter and enslave the entire planet and destroy China and the BRICS nations again, as the unspoken but obvious reasoning).

Whatever happens won’t be an accident- it won’t be a “chance,” basically- if it happens it will have been nigh inevitable, if it is avoided it will be through masterful statecraft/containment on China and the rest of humanity’s part upon the US to prevent the west from lighting the fuse. And it will not so much be due to the west “calling North Korea/China’s bluff,” or even giving two shits about what the comprador regimes of the RoC and South Korea have to say, much less the people- it will be a matter of the US brunt forcing the issue with full knowledge of what will come about (even up to possible MAD- not like they overly care about their own citizens, though of course they will try to keep the bulk of the destruction contained in Asia). Like with Ukraine, if the South Koreans or RoC governments get cold feet, the US will push further (and then it’ll be a matter if they succeed in that regard). If the KMT is in the way (due to not being suicidal), the DPP will be brought in their place. If the DPP is in the way, some other group of maniacs will be brought in, and so on. The same goes for South Korea, the Philippines, and Japan- they all might try to wriggle free of the control but their chances are pretty bleak, and their institutions are heavily compromised from the ground up.

Obviously as a TL,DR I think it’s already more than in the works and with full bipartisan support (the only pesky issues getting in the way are things like their “project Ukraine” being a disaster, or the Muslims getting “uppity” rather than peacefully allowing the blood-crazed Anglo-franchise of Isntreal to continue genocide as usual). It’s more likely to happen than not (unless things continue throwing major wrenches in the plan- which is likely) and everyone knows- the world knows, western citizenry knows, etc, etc… that as the opportunity to push the “terrorism/WW3” button closes in on the US, they (the neocon uniparty) will push it, unprovoked, rather than accept equality and peace. The only question is if that window of opportunity can be closed before they do (through any variety of reasons- from civil war/a coup by the non-suicidal elements of the US, things simply catching up with the US faster than they can prepare, etc)