Took some time today to flip through the 2024 Pentagon budget proposal, the unprecedented $842B budget.

  1. Production isn’t being dramatically increased
  2. Increased $ topline comes from inflation and switch to more advanced variants

Something basic, like the JLTV will not only cost more for fewer vehicles (3108) but will likely miss production goals in 2023 (3311 out of 3721 projected).

Same story for the AMPV, which instead of the 72 for $380m will only see 43 deliveries this year. 2024 has 91 projected.

Certain systems like the M1 Abrams and the PIM sp-arty production will be increased but seem to be capped out at a production capacity limit. Note the increasing costs over last year’s projections. 2024 budget reduces order numbers substantially, though additional upgrades slated

As for defensive systems, no new Patriots complexes, but research on the next iteration of the system has been funded with a dramatically larger R&D budget. As for interceptors, fewer will be built at a higher overall bill. Navy, SM-3 and SM-6 will be procured in tiny numbers.

JASSM unit numbers steady but per unit cost expected to skyrocket as production shifts fully to ER variant. LRASM numbers increased. Could also include facility upgrades. Meanwhile modernization of tomahawks crawls. Naval strike missile, small numbers at greater cost.

Pictures are linked in the twitter thread. TL:DR is that the US MIC is not actually increasing production throughput despite all the proclamations being put out by the informal state media but is rather adjusting to inflation.

I guess it’s easy to do creative accounting when Pentagon never passing audit and there were no consequences ever.

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