It would be misleading to call NATO’s ongoing exercise simply a war game because that evokes scenes of people in costume reenacting historic battles or modern armies charging about, field-testing their tactics and equipment. Exercise Steadfast Defender 2024 is far from harmless. It is very much a rehearsal, and - in a theater where war is already raging - possibly even a provocation. With the Russia-Ukraine conflict still ongoing, Steadfast Defender - NATO’s largest military venture since the Cold War - could be seen by Moscow as a deliberate poking of the Russian bear.

As the bloc’s 31 armies, along with another from membership contender Sweden, hurl 90,000 of their military personnel into a make-believe battle, Russia and Ukraine’s forces are engaged in a very real and deadly conflict on NATO’s doorstep.

Let’s not forget that while NATO is engaged in military exercises from Europe’s High North to Central and Eastern Europe until May 31, it is simultaneously deeply involved in the conflict with Russia through its proxy, Ukraine.

A number of ranking European figures have pushed the narrative of an impending war with Russia.

In January, Britain’s defense secretary Grant Shapps ominously predicted that the UK could be at war with Russia, China, North Korea and Iran within five years. Then Britain’s top soldier, General Sir Patrick Sanders, chief of the General Staff, made a rallying cry last year, urging his troops to prepare to defeat Russia “in battle.”

The chair of NATO’s military committee, Dutch admiral Rob Bauer, said large numbers of civilians will need to be mobilized for a Russia conflict.

Sweden’s Military Commander-in-chief General Micael Byden stated that all Swedes should be mentally prepared for war.

Germany’s Defense Minister Boris Pistorius said war with Russia could be possible in the next five to eight years.

General Eirik Kristofferson, the head of Norway’s armed forces, warned: “The people of Norway should give thought to their readiness. We recommend being able to cope without outside help for three days.” Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas has cautioned that Europe has three to five years to prepare for any threat from Russia.

All suggest that civilians will be central to any future war. The populations are being groomed. They are being told NATO is a defensive shield, when increasingly it looks like a brandished sword.

Talk of “three to five years” is significant, as that is the time it will take NATO’s nations to restore their equipment and ordnance stockpiles, after supplying so much to Ukraine.

(Archive link: https://archive.ph/oBN6h)

My opinion:

They are openly declaring their intention to seek conflict with Russia after their arms stockpiles are replenished. They will by then have spun the Ukrainian losses not as a failure of western weapons, gear, doctrine, etc but of Slavic people. They sent in the B team of fodder and they failed, now they figure if they send in the A-team Russia will surely lose or suffer such horrendous losses and that they will somehow be stronger. These deranged liberals literally believe in Putin as Hitler and believe they must confront him.

And this is fostered by the US that does not want a strong or independent Europe and would be happy to use them as fodder to change the geopolitical chessboard in its favor.

I expect they will engineer a situation to give them an excuse.

Either keep the Ukraine war burning for that long and declare some invented atrocity crosses the line or stage a color revolution or similar in a CIS state near Russia which will trigger a Russian military response allowing them to send in NATO and claim they’re just there for humanitarian reasons. They then engage the Russian military in high intensity combat, start sinking Russian ships, missile strikes within Russia at infrastructure associated with aircraft used in the theater, and escalate from there. Probably not crossing the Russian border but forcing Russia to either withdraw and give them a victory or spend great effort defeating them.