u/Jazzlike-Strength730 - originally from r/GenZhou
Sorry, i don’t really know much about the situation in general.
u/thesh019 - originally from r/GenZhou
Two reasons. One is our old friend the military-industrial complex. Edging closer to war = more weapons getting sold = more money for Raytheon and Boeing.The other is another classic, oil politics. Russia is a big oil producer, and Europe consumes a lot of oil, so it’s natural that oil flows from Russia to Europe. A huge amount of that flow has historically been through Ukraine, and Ukraine makes a lot of money on the fees they charge for oil moving through their country. More recently, for obvious reasons, Russia doesn’t want its oil held hostage by Ukraine, and has started construction on the Nord Stream 2 pipeline. The pipeline cuts through the Baltic Sea on a direct route from Russia to Germany, so no transit fees and no reliance on any third parties. Obviously Ukraine doesn’t like that, and neither does the US, so we figure the best way of stopping it is to whip up war frenzy and try to drive a wedge between Europe and Russia. If you pay attention, there’s a reason Germany is the one country that isn’t joining in on sending supplies to the Ukrainians.
u/SSR_Id_prefer_not_to - originally from r/GenZhouIf you pay attention, there’s a reason Germany is the one country that isn’t joining in on sending supplies to the Ukrainians.
Omg! Comrade, you are totally right. Fantastic class-based analysis
u/Spacecortez - originally from r/GenZhou
This is correct, but it is gas, not oil, that is the vital fuel flowing through the pipelines. There is also a pipeline transiting through Belarus and Poland. Belarus is a Russian ally, but you’ll see that Poland is one of the most rabid supporters of Kiev in this conflict. Edit: Poland is one of the most rabid supporters of Kievu/thesh019 - originally from r/GenZhou
Yeah you’re right, both Nord Stream and the Brotherhood pipeline are actually natural gas. No excuse there, just a dumb brain fart I guess.And there are other pipelines besides the one flowing from Ukraine, but right now that one’s by far the biggest. Nord Stream is clearly a way of making it less essential. As you say, Belarus shutting off gas flow isn’t a concern, so that pipeline is much less of a liability and doesn’t really factor in here.
u/Spacecortez - originally from r/GenZhou
Oops, I meant to say that Poland is one of the most rabid supporters of Kiev. It’s because they also benefit from high transit fees on gas, like Ukraine.
aged like milk
u/fourthirds - originally from r/GenZhou
Minor correction - Nordstream 2 is complete, its just awaiting regulatory certification. It was finished construction last year.u/Ganem1227 - originally from r/GenZhou
to be fair, this new pipeline sounds like it screws the Ukrainians regardless of who their leadership is. Was there something the Russians were going to do to placate them?u/cfgaussian - originally from r/GenZhou
If the Ukrainian government hadn’t killed their own economy on the orders of their US masters by cutting off most of their ties to Russia (their biggest trading partner on which most of their industry and general economy has historically relied on), neoliberalizing, privatizing and selling everything off to western corporations that was still of any value, then maybe Ukraine wouldn’t be in the situation it is now, they would have more diverse economic prospects and wouldn’t be so dependent on this and so vulnerable to disruptions.Ukraine has been effectively turned into a neocolony over the past 8 years and millions of people have left the country. The west has succeeded in completely ruining it, and now seeing as they are pulling out their embassies from Kiev it seems like they have decided they have milked it for all it was worth and are going to abandon it and let it collapse.
The plan is probably to maintain a pro-western rump state in western Ukraine around Lviv which is an ultranationalist neonazi stronghold, and which they can actually integrate into NATO and give Ukraine’s UN seat to.
The rest of the country being 45% Russian speaking they would never have been able to completely pacify.
u/iHerpTheDerp511 - originally from r/GenZhou
These are very valuable points, thanks for adding them. With regards to milking Ukrainian I think you also hit the nail on the head. Much like the forces of capital leading up to World War 1, the west has run out of markets to expand into; in Europe, central/South America, and South-Eastern Asia.This leaves the western powers with only one solution in order to maintain the system of capital expansion in order to maintain the profit levels western corporations have grown accustomed too: the complete and total destruction of the Ukrainian national bourgeoisie (Ukranian capital) along with the manufacturing base (productive forces).
In manufacturing this conflict the hopes are that western capital can destroy the capital and productive capacity of Ukraine and then induct them into NATO so that western capital can supplant itself as a replacement to what was lost and create a new market for further capital expansion. Though this would all be done through a proxy war with Russia in which Ukraine is armed and supported through NATO powers.
NATO expansion to any ex-East-block countries is a violation of a treaty signed back in 91 (?) and Ukraine and Belarus were the last two on the list to blockade Russia from Europe.
Other than oil and gas that Ukraine has to pass to western oil companies to exploit (BP and Shell were already exploiting E.Ukraine deposits, and Biden’s son was an executive to the largest Ukrainian oil company, Ukraine is also a significant grains exporter. Russia among others depend on this export, which under NATO command it would be weaponized and sentencing Russia to famine under the blockade.
Ukraine also would pas its water rights of Black Sea to western oil companies effectively minimizing Russian presence in the Black Sea economic zone. A global attempt to convert international/public waters to privately owned and managed territories.
BP has been pumping nat.gas from Azerbaijan to Europe outside Russian control and benefit. The war pretty much guaranteed maximum flow and profit through this new pipeline (TAP)
Then there was an issue of inability to defend its own water ways outside the black sea. With the black sea becoming practically a NATO lake, it would be non-sensical to expect the UN or other international organization to defend Russia’s merchant fleet access to the Med.
Was Russian oligarchy and tycoons willing to lose Ukraine to their western adversaries? I don’t think they had much of a choice and it was too late to revert the damage done 10-15 years ago with EU/NATO proposed induction, through political means and influence. So this war had become inevitable and unavoidable for the Russian oligarchy to maintain control of Russia. Russia would have lost any sense of sustainability when this last move in the chessboard would have been made. To avoid check mate, Russia should have invaded as it was the only real option and hope to revert the damage while maintaining some dignity.
Having said all this, Putin just represents a 19th century type of elite through an pseudo-democracy , an isolated Russian capitalism, Russia’s prevention of accessing global markets for as long as Putin is alive at least has drawn a very ugly picture for its future.
u/aimixin - originally from r/GenZhou
The US wants to be able to get Ukraine into NATO. The 2014 coup, which we have recording of US ambassadors talking about it before it happened and even saying who they wanted to be the new leader of the new government which is what happened, is an incredibly pro-western government that even flies western flags in their parliament.If the US gets them into NATO then the US will have the right to use its military to crush opposition to the government. This will start with the US crushing the Luhansk and Donetsk republics, which are two governments that declared independence from Ukraine back in 2014 and have their own independent states ever since.
u/ThermoNuclearPizza - originally from r/GenZhou
You got that recording?u/aimixin - originally from r/GenZhou
https://youtu.be/WV9J6sxCs5k
u/darkcalling - originally from r/GenZhou
Four reasons:-
Money for military industrial complex, hype a threat, sell arms, stock line go up.
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Stop Russian Nordstream pipeline, shut down Russian gas and oil exports to Europe. This has three primary results if successful:
- force Europe onto more expensive American gas and oil,
- further blockades and embargoes Russia a geopolitical enemy to impoverish it, isolate it and try and cause it to collapse.
- As a result of 1-2 Europe and the EU is weakened and leashed to the US while Russia is also kept in check, it preserves US hegemony and prevents Europe going their own way and creating a counter-balance to American national bourgeoisie.
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American public needs an enemy. Yes China is and will still be there but they want to rile the American people up against Russia as well. It’s part of a propaganda push to attempt to isolate them, to get public support for attacking them, and to keep the public ignorant of the situation and keep the proles (who are increasingly suffering massive deteriorations of quality of life) distracted and foaming at the mouth.
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To create the pretext and atmosphere where if they stage a false flag or do something to goad Russia into military intervention, however limited they can hop up and down screaming and justify whatever they want. They are deliberately increasing tensions with Russia.
They also want Ukraine in NATO to put arms and armies right up against Russia’s border. When it comes right down to it the anglo’s are mad and immoral. I think if they could get the jump on Russia and nuke it (or otherwise attack) in a way that cuts off leadership (decapitating strike) and lets a hand-picked person take control and put the country under their sway and open for plunder again they wouldn’t hesitate if it killed ten million Russians.
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u/Jaafeil - originally from r/GenZhou
Many possibilities.-
Justification for sending troops to Ukraine. This is less likely, as escalating the conflict in this direct way would be met with strong opposition from the newer generations that are against this idea.
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Justification for the military budget being so high during a time in which people call for cutting the budget. “How can we pay for healthcare and stuff when we need money for the military just in case Russia invades our ally?”
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The false flag narrative makes the US look good either way. If anything bad happens, even if Russia didn’t do it, the US can claim it’s the false flag operation that they’ve provided no evidence for. If nothing bad happens, the US can tell its citizens that the government prevented a false flag operation that would’ve started World War III, therefore making the US look like the saviors of humanity.
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It’s a distraction from the current economic issues in the US, such as inflation. If the people think that their government is saving the world from Russia, how can they really complain?
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u/maoshrooms - originally from r/GenZhou
To keep Europe from making new friends.u/CapriSun87 - originally from r/GenZhou
This. It’s to keep Russian oil and gas out of the European market. This is why they keep stalling the Nord Stream 2 pipeline over Ukraine.
u/GeminiGambit - originally from r/GenZhou
We have mineral and strategic interests in Ukraine. So if we can convince the world or at least own population that Russian invasion is imminent, we can justify a more aggressive presence in and control of the region than would normally be accepted by the international communityu/CapriSun87 - originally from r/GenZhou
It excuses sanctions on Russia, which keeps Russian oil and gas out of America’s economic sphere (i.e. Europe). Think, the Nord Stream 2 pipeline that they’ve manage to stall so far over Ukraine.As always, the war mongering is about money.
u/AnonBard18 - originally from r/GenZhou
In my opinion, To keep Americans inundated with fear of a russian threat and distracted from what’s actually going on, and to eventually be “right” if they successfully provoke Russia to enter Ukraineu/ProlesOfMischief - originally from r/GenZhou
To stop Nord Stream 2 and get European policy united around U.S. interests in preparation for taking on China/Russia. The Atlantic Council, close to Biden admin, wrote a blueprint for Biden regarding Ukraine last spring and these are pretty much the main takeaways.u/ForeverAProletariat - originally from r/GenZhou
https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_briefs/RB10014.html
u/Nairda00 - originally from r/GenZhou
entirely nord stream 2they will continue until its cancelled or they fail
u/SEND_DUCK_PICS - originally from r/GenZhou
i just want to piggy back on this. the only people at my job (trade job) who are against the escalation with ukraine are all trump supporters. do you have any idea why they and people like tucker carlson oppose this buildup and criticize the quality of US intelligence while also being hopelessly reactionary on everything else?u/BertnardWashingbeard - originally from r/GenZhou
My guess is that its because a democrat is president and the media they were trained to believe is lügenpresse is reporting it. It seems to be a case of broken clocks. I work a blue collar job as well and I’ve mostly heard people confused by the whole thing when they’ve talked about it. I haven’t even heard one person irl express support, only confusion or general distrust in the government and war fatigue.
u/BYC_UK - originally from r/GenZhou
Additional to the other great answers here, is there also an economics benefit for US in this?I’m not an economist and would prefer someone with more expertise to chime in e.g. /u/lijjili
But isn’t there an increasing risk of a mass sell-off of the US treasury bond market and as result a risk of hyperinflation in the US. The threat of a war in Europe would help stabilise and increase demand for US treasuries.
Similar to the introduction of Euros and the US-NATO bombing of Yugoslavia in 2000?
*Also, Ukraine committed to the China BRI last year. War would push this potentially back.
u/Wiwwil - originally from r/GenZhou
Justify war. They need to somehow keep rolling that military complex and arms manufacturing.u/pelopelo30 - originally from r/GenZhou
Little off-topic since the question was already answered by u/thesh019, but also remember that America makes loads of money in Mexico sending weapons to cartels and sicarios. My speculation is that it isn’t really making as much money anymore.This aged great
