u/thesh019 - originally from r/GenZhou
Two reasons. One is our old friend the military-industrial complex. Edging closer to war = more weapons getting sold = more money for Raytheon and Boeing.
The other is another classic, oil politics. Russia is a big oil producer, and Europe consumes a lot of oil, so it’s natural that oil flows from Russia to Europe. A huge amount of that flow has historically been through Ukraine, and Ukraine makes a lot of money on the fees they charge for oil moving through their country. More recently, for obvious reasons, Russia doesn’t want its oil held hostage by Ukraine, and has started construction on the Nord Stream 2 pipeline. The pipeline cuts through the Baltic Sea on a direct route from Russia to Germany, so no transit fees and no reliance on any third parties. Obviously Ukraine doesn’t like that, and neither does the US, so we figure the best way of stopping it is to whip up war frenzy and try to drive a wedge between Europe and Russia. If you pay attention, there’s a reason Germany is the one country that isn’t joining in on sending supplies to the Ukrainians.
u/Spacecortez - originally from r/GenZhou
This is correct, but it is gas, not oil, that is the vital fuel flowing through the pipelines.
There is also a pipeline transiting through Belarus and Poland. Belarus is a Russian ally, but you’ll see that Poland is one of the most rabid supporters of Kiev in this conflict.
Edit: Poland is one of the most rabid supporters of Kiev
u/thesh019 - originally from r/GenZhou
Yeah you’re right, both Nord Stream and the Brotherhood pipeline are actually natural gas. No excuse there, just a dumb brain fart I guess.
And there are other pipelines besides the one flowing from Ukraine, but right now that one’s by far the biggest. Nord Stream is clearly a way of making it less essential. As you say, Belarus shutting off gas flow isn’t a concern, so that pipeline is much less of a liability and doesn’t really factor in here.
u/Spacecortez - originally from r/GenZhou
Oops, I meant to say that Poland is one of the most rabid supporters of Kiev. It’s because they also benefit from high transit fees on gas, like Ukraine.
u/fourthirds - originally from r/GenZhou
Minor correction - Nordstream 2 is complete, its just awaiting regulatory certification. It was finished construction last year.
u/Ganem1227 - originally from r/GenZhou
to be fair, this new pipeline sounds like it screws the Ukrainians regardless of who their leadership is. Was there something the Russians were going to do to placate them?
u/cfgaussian - originally from r/GenZhou
If the Ukrainian government hadn’t killed their own economy on the orders of their US masters by cutting off most of their ties to Russia (their biggest trading partner on which most of their industry and general economy has historically relied on), neoliberalizing, privatizing and selling everything off to western corporations that was still of any value, then maybe Ukraine wouldn’t be in the situation it is now, they would have more diverse economic prospects and wouldn’t be so dependent on this and so vulnerable to disruptions.
Ukraine has been effectively turned into a neocolony over the past 8 years and millions of people have left the country. The west has succeeded in completely ruining it, and now seeing as they are pulling out their embassies from Kiev it seems like they have decided they have milked it for all it was worth and are going to abandon it and let it collapse.
The plan is probably to maintain a pro-western rump state in western Ukraine around Lviv which is an ultranationalist neonazi stronghold, and which they can actually integrate into NATO and give Ukraine’s UN seat to.
The rest of the country being 45% Russian speaking they would never have been able to completely pacify.
u/iHerpTheDerp511 - originally from r/GenZhou
These are very valuable points, thanks for adding them. With regards to milking Ukrainian I think you also hit the nail on the head. Much like the forces of capital leading up to World War 1, the west has run out of markets to expand into; in Europe, central/South America, and South-Eastern Asia.
This leaves the western powers with only one solution in order to maintain the system of capital expansion in order to maintain the profit levels western corporations have grown accustomed too: the complete and total destruction of the Ukrainian national bourgeoisie (Ukranian capital) along with the manufacturing base (productive forces).
In manufacturing this conflict the hopes are that western capital can destroy the capital and productive capacity of Ukraine and then induct them into NATO so that western capital can supplant itself as a replacement to what was lost and create a new market for further capital expansion. Though this would all be done through a proxy war with Russia in which Ukraine is armed and supported through NATO powers.
NATO expansion to any ex-East-block countries is a violation of a treaty signed back in 91 (?) and Ukraine and Belarus were the last two on the list to blockade Russia from Europe.
Other than oil and gas that Ukraine has to pass to western oil companies to exploit (BP and Shell were already exploiting E.Ukraine deposits, and Biden’s son was an executive to the largest Ukrainian oil company, Ukraine is also a significant grains exporter. Russia among others depend on this export, which under NATO command it would be weaponized and sentencing Russia to famine under the blockade.
Ukraine also would pas its water rights of Black Sea to western oil companies effectively minimizing Russian presence in the Black Sea economic zone. A global attempt to convert international/public waters to privately owned and managed territories.
BP has been pumping nat.gas from Azerbaijan to Europe outside Russian control and benefit. The war pretty much guaranteed maximum flow and profit through this new pipeline (TAP)
Then there was an issue of inability to defend its own water ways outside the black sea. With the black sea becoming practically a NATO lake, it would be non-sensical to expect the UN or other international organization to defend Russia’s merchant fleet access to the Med.
Was Russian oligarchy and tycoons willing to lose Ukraine to their western adversaries? I don’t think they had much of a choice and it was too late to revert the damage done 10-15 years ago with EU/NATO proposed induction, through political means and influence. So this war had become inevitable and unavoidable for the Russian oligarchy to maintain control of Russia. Russia would have lost any sense of sustainability when this last move in the chessboard would have been made. To avoid check mate, Russia should have invaded as it was the only real option and hope to revert the damage while maintaining some dignity.
Having said all this, Putin just represents a 19th century type of elite through an pseudo-democracy , an isolated Russian capitalism, Russia’s prevention of accessing global markets for as long as Putin is alive at least has drawn a very ugly picture for its future.
u/thesh019 - originally from r/GenZhouTwo reasons. One is our old friend the military-industrial complex. Edging closer to war = more weapons getting sold = more money for Raytheon and Boeing.
The other is another classic, oil politics. Russia is a big oil producer, and Europe consumes a lot of oil, so it’s natural that oil flows from Russia to Europe. A huge amount of that flow has historically been through Ukraine, and Ukraine makes a lot of money on the fees they charge for oil moving through their country. More recently, for obvious reasons, Russia doesn’t want its oil held hostage by Ukraine, and has started construction on the Nord Stream 2 pipeline. The pipeline cuts through the Baltic Sea on a direct route from Russia to Germany, so no transit fees and no reliance on any third parties. Obviously Ukraine doesn’t like that, and neither does the US, so we figure the best way of stopping it is to whip up war frenzy and try to drive a wedge between Europe and Russia. If you pay attention, there’s a reason Germany is the one country that isn’t joining in on sending supplies to the Ukrainians.
u/SSR_Id_prefer_not_to - originally from r/GenZhouOmg! Comrade, you are totally right. Fantastic class-based analysis
u/Spacecortez - originally from r/GenZhouThis is correct, but it is gas, not oil, that is the vital fuel flowing through the pipelines. There is also a pipeline transiting through Belarus and Poland. Belarus is a Russian ally, but you’ll see that Poland is one of the most rabid supporters of Kiev in this conflict. Edit: Poland is one of the most rabid supporters of Kiev
u/thesh019 - originally from r/GenZhouYeah you’re right, both Nord Stream and the Brotherhood pipeline are actually natural gas. No excuse there, just a dumb brain fart I guess.
And there are other pipelines besides the one flowing from Ukraine, but right now that one’s by far the biggest. Nord Stream is clearly a way of making it less essential. As you say, Belarus shutting off gas flow isn’t a concern, so that pipeline is much less of a liability and doesn’t really factor in here.
u/Spacecortez - originally from r/GenZhouOops, I meant to say that Poland is one of the most rabid supporters of Kiev. It’s because they also benefit from high transit fees on gas, like Ukraine.
aged like milk
u/fourthirds - originally from r/GenZhouMinor correction - Nordstream 2 is complete, its just awaiting regulatory certification. It was finished construction last year.
u/Ganem1227 - originally from r/GenZhouto be fair, this new pipeline sounds like it screws the Ukrainians regardless of who their leadership is. Was there something the Russians were going to do to placate them?
u/cfgaussian - originally from r/GenZhouIf the Ukrainian government hadn’t killed their own economy on the orders of their US masters by cutting off most of their ties to Russia (their biggest trading partner on which most of their industry and general economy has historically relied on), neoliberalizing, privatizing and selling everything off to western corporations that was still of any value, then maybe Ukraine wouldn’t be in the situation it is now, they would have more diverse economic prospects and wouldn’t be so dependent on this and so vulnerable to disruptions.
Ukraine has been effectively turned into a neocolony over the past 8 years and millions of people have left the country. The west has succeeded in completely ruining it, and now seeing as they are pulling out their embassies from Kiev it seems like they have decided they have milked it for all it was worth and are going to abandon it and let it collapse.
The plan is probably to maintain a pro-western rump state in western Ukraine around Lviv which is an ultranationalist neonazi stronghold, and which they can actually integrate into NATO and give Ukraine’s UN seat to.
The rest of the country being 45% Russian speaking they would never have been able to completely pacify.
u/iHerpTheDerp511 - originally from r/GenZhouThese are very valuable points, thanks for adding them. With regards to milking Ukrainian I think you also hit the nail on the head. Much like the forces of capital leading up to World War 1, the west has run out of markets to expand into; in Europe, central/South America, and South-Eastern Asia.
This leaves the western powers with only one solution in order to maintain the system of capital expansion in order to maintain the profit levels western corporations have grown accustomed too: the complete and total destruction of the Ukrainian national bourgeoisie (Ukranian capital) along with the manufacturing base (productive forces).
In manufacturing this conflict the hopes are that western capital can destroy the capital and productive capacity of Ukraine and then induct them into NATO so that western capital can supplant itself as a replacement to what was lost and create a new market for further capital expansion. Though this would all be done through a proxy war with Russia in which Ukraine is armed and supported through NATO powers.
NATO expansion to any ex-East-block countries is a violation of a treaty signed back in 91 (?) and Ukraine and Belarus were the last two on the list to blockade Russia from Europe.
Other than oil and gas that Ukraine has to pass to western oil companies to exploit (BP and Shell were already exploiting E.Ukraine deposits, and Biden’s son was an executive to the largest Ukrainian oil company, Ukraine is also a significant grains exporter. Russia among others depend on this export, which under NATO command it would be weaponized and sentencing Russia to famine under the blockade.
Ukraine also would pas its water rights of Black Sea to western oil companies effectively minimizing Russian presence in the Black Sea economic zone. A global attempt to convert international/public waters to privately owned and managed territories.
BP has been pumping nat.gas from Azerbaijan to Europe outside Russian control and benefit. The war pretty much guaranteed maximum flow and profit through this new pipeline (TAP)
Then there was an issue of inability to defend its own water ways outside the black sea. With the black sea becoming practically a NATO lake, it would be non-sensical to expect the UN or other international organization to defend Russia’s merchant fleet access to the Med.
Was Russian oligarchy and tycoons willing to lose Ukraine to their western adversaries? I don’t think they had much of a choice and it was too late to revert the damage done 10-15 years ago with EU/NATO proposed induction, through political means and influence. So this war had become inevitable and unavoidable for the Russian oligarchy to maintain control of Russia. Russia would have lost any sense of sustainability when this last move in the chessboard would have been made. To avoid check mate, Russia should have invaded as it was the only real option and hope to revert the damage while maintaining some dignity.
Having said all this, Putin just represents a 19th century type of elite through an pseudo-democracy , an isolated Russian capitalism, Russia’s prevention of accessing global markets for as long as Putin is alive at least has drawn a very ugly picture for its future.