Get ready for the flood of kompromat
As Vladimir Putin sits thinking in his bomb-proof office, he may come to regret the fact that the entire world is sure that he ordered the death of the mutinous mercenary leader Yevgeny Prigozhin. The Kremlin is a Camorra, a mafia style parliament, running a gangster operation to fill Putin’s pockets and those of his oligarchs and elites. But as the Japanese found in Burma in 1944, if you prosecute a war with terror you will likely come unstuck against a well led, motivated and moral organisation like General ‘Bill’ Slim’s ‘Forgotten Army’.
Putin may in fact have signed his own death warrant. His fingerprints may not have been on the firing button when Prigozhin’s jet was brought down, and may not have been on the Polonium or Novichok which killed some of his other opponents, but his DNA is all over the orders. He now has two very powerful groups to worry about – quite apart from the International Criminal Court, which no doubt has so much evidence that if he ever gets to the Hague he will never leave.
Firstly, Putin must worry about his oligarchs who have now been holed up in their dachas in Moscow for over 18 months, unable to use their superyachts or villas in the Mediterranean. As their leader is further vilified around the globe over this latest murder, the oligarchs may come to see that their only chance to break out of Russia, now so diminished economically and socially, is to dispose of Putin.
Secondly, the Wagner Group might have lost their ‘cowboy’ leader and his deputy, but they remain a large force of thugs and murderers. Prigozhin was no military commander, but the Wagner Group is the most successful military outfit that Russia has managed to put into the field, no matter that they are paid mercenaries, many of them recruited out of Russian jails. To control such a rabble, you need some very hard ‘lieutenants’ running the show and these men will now be considering the future in Belarus and Africa. How ironic it would be if somebody showered them with riches to go and create mayhem within Russia. My experience of mercenaries is that they are not too picky about whose money they take.
archive link: https://archive.is/mMry3
Prighozin’s death is international news, but noone gives a single fuck outside the spectacle of it. The man was loved by noone outside Russia, Putin has transparently murdered dozens of people far more important to the West without being toppled.
Russia’s newly displayed military impotence shifts the calculus, but Prighozin isn’t the guy to cause an international uproar.
I think the bigger point is that now Wagner may very well decide that he’s the enemy.
Given the fact that all they needed to do is wander over in the general direction of Moscow and it causes absolute chaos, if they actually had a mind to invade I think they’d win in 10 minutes.
I don’t know what is worse, a sociopath with nukes or the Wagner lunatics with nukes…
Putting our hopes on those monsters to help bring down Putin will end badly. It smells of the US propping up Bin Laden to kick the Russians out of Afghanistan.
Short-term gain, with massive long-term consequences.
The difference in this case is that no one’s helping Wagner. It’s one set of monsters taking down another set of monsters. Entirely on their own because they’re utterly disorganised.
But one of those situations is slightly better than the other. At the very least it will weaken Russia and force them to pull military forces out of Ukraine.
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Wagner with nukes because they’re an unknown element when it comes to nukes. We at least know that Putin is reluctant to use them.
That isn’t however the argument the article is making (noting I’m rather dubious on it).
They’re not arguing that NATO will suddenly invade because Pringles got SAM’d.
They’re arguing that a) the Wagner lieutenants are competent and experienced which makes it likely that they are not only capable but likely to be effective at seeking vengeance; and b) that Putin has systematically culled all the competent generals and hence there’s a reduced capability.
Now I’m dubious on the likelihood of the first, and while the second is true I’m not as convinced it will be a game changer.
I guess that’s what I get for not reading the article - yeah, it’s hard to disagree.
This time they didn’t even blow up a plane full of people from the Nederlands.
I feel bad for the three crew members in that plane.
Yeah - though I’ve got no idea whether they were complicit Wagner stooges or largely innocent wagies.
That’s true, although extrajudicial killings are always bad.
I agree with the sentiment, but find that legality (the basis for it being extrajudicial or not) is a poor marker of morality that varies based on the laws of the country in question - for example: In the absence of a formal declaration of war, I think every invading Russian soldier killed by a Ukrainian is technically an extrajudicial killing (though in practical terms, if course a conviction won’t be sought). Morally, I think they have the right to defend themselves against an invading army that seeks to annex them.
Anyhow, I think we’re effectively in agreement and splitting hairs way off-topic, so I’m going to dip. Be well!
I didn’t like the guy but he was well liked in Syria and certain parts of Africa.
I’m happy to take you at your word on that, but don’t think angered parts of Africa and Syria are going to pose a meaningful threat to Putin.