Beijing has expressed national-security concerns related to the SpaceX network
Chinese researchers are preparing to launch close to 13,000 satellites into a low-earth orbit, in a move which would dwarf – and potentially monitor – Elon Musk’s SpaceX ‘Starlink’ network, which first launched in 2019 and provides satellite internet access to 50 countries.
The project, which is codenamed ‘GW’ and is being led by associate professor Xu Can of the People’s Liberation Army’s (PLA) Space Engineering University in Beijing, will see 12,992 satellites operated by the China Satellite Network Group Co launched into orbit, and is designed to improve communications efficiency.
The launch schedule remains unknown but the team led by Xu said that they plan to deploy them “before the completion of Starlink.” They added that this would “ensure that our country has a place in low orbit and prevent the Starlink constellation from excessively pre-empting low-orbit resources.”
The projected number of ‘GW’ satellites would surpass Starlink’s current total of around 3,500. SpaceX plans to have 12,000 devices in its constellation of satellites by 2027, with that figure eventually rising to 42,000.
Xu’s team elaborated that they would place their satellites into “orbits where the Starlink constellation has not yet reached” and that they would “gain opportunities and advantages at other orbital altitudes, and even suppress Starlink.”
The ‘GW’ network could also be equipped with technology to provide “long-term surveillance of Starlink satellites,” the team of researchers added.
Xu and his team also suggested that the Chinese government could form an anti-Starlink coalition with various other governments which would “demand that SpaceX publish the precise orbiting data of Starlink satellites.”
Chinese military figures have previously expressed concern at the national security implications posed by SpaceX’s satellites, and called for the development of “hard kill” technology “to destroy the constellation’s operating system” should it be necessary.
China’s efforts to counter Starlink come amid growing concerns about the potential military applications of the global satellite network. The technology has been used to bolster communications by Ukrainian military forces throughout its conflict with Russia – though SpaceX took steps earlier this month to restrict its use in controlling military drones in the country.
The thing is once they start doing that space will become a dead zone. The US will retaliate by destroying any and all Chinese space assets (maybe not space stations but maybe even those). And unlike China which might take steps to try and minimize the problems of debris you can be sure the US at that point would try and maximize it as an area denial tactic, so as to say if they can’t dominate it then no one will be allowed to operate in it.
I don’t disagree something will likely need to be done and the moment a hot conflict between the US and China comes into play China is likely to take out those satellites if they can along with US military ones but the US is going to throw an absolute entitled brat shit-fit at that happening and act particularly aggrieved and wronged.
That’s true but one side is in the ascendancy technologically and the other in decline. China will have the resources and infrastructure to replace its losses, as well as the scientific expertise to deal with any problems resulting from a kinetic conflict in LEO. The US’s space program has been quite pathetic for a while, they were still using Russian rockets until just recently for a lot of their most important missions because the Space Shuttle program turned out to be unprofitable and was therefore slashed. And the private initiatives like SpaceX are a joke compared to what a well funded government space agency can do.
But obviously neither China nor Russia want to have to pull the trigger on this because it will cause a lot of serious problems for everyone around the world. The more they can delay the stronger their position will be relative to the West once the conflict starts in earnest.
In the meantime it is a good idea to peacefully compete for real estate in LEO and just overwhelm with sheer numbers, blocking out the other side.
Its going to be nasty, but it’ll be even worse if the U.S. stays in control of the satellite zone.