It seems like in the last few years, the cracks were really starting to show in American dominance. The bungling of the COVID response, the BRI and BRICS chipping away at US trade and currency dominance, the failure of Ukraine to repel Russia, inflation and shortages in the imperial core, etc.
But it seems like many of these cracks have been patched up this year. I’m not sure how much is just propaganda, but economic indicators show that inflation in the US has cooled, unemployment is the lowest and the labor force participation rate is the highest they’ve been in decades (even accounting for underemployment/gig work), and real wages have increased amongst the poorest and richest alike (albeit unequally so).
US energy prices are dropping. US oil production is at an all time high, and the US is refilling its strategic reserves at a lower prices than it released them for. OPEC can’t retaliate without taking a huge hit to their economy.
Infrastructure, historically a big issue for the US, has been looking better as the Biden administration passed several huge spending packages to improve train networks and other things.
Ukraine is losing but the US has only spent a small fraction of what they did in Afghanistan, and they’ve debt trapped Ukraine in the process. The Israel-Palestine conflict has certainly turned sentiment against the US but it hasn’t resulted in any material change in relations.
China’s economy is stumbling; although there’s not a recession per se, unemployment is sky high, consumer confidence has taken a hit, and investment has slowed. Interest rates are about 3.5% in China while they’re about 5% in the US, which means China has less room to perform expansionary monetary policy than the US.
The US seems to have gained ground in trade relations. Several countries have pulled out of the BRI. Countries like Mexico, which for a while had China as their biggest trade partner, once again have the US as their biggest trade partner. FDI in China has slowed. “De-risking” and “friendshoring” have started yielding results. I know in the long run this will also weaken imperialism as it develops the productive forces of countries like India, Mexico, and Vietnam, but it might take a long time; even highly-industrialized countries like Japan, Germany, and south Korea are still subservient to the US.
People have completely forgotten about the US’ shit COVID response, but Chinese citizens still bear resentment towards Xi and the central gov for the zero-COVID policy, and the uncertainty over lockdowns was a contributing factor towards the reduction in investor confidence in China.
So overall, things don’t look too bad for the US, while they’re looking a bit uncertain for the other emerging “poles” like China, Russia, and the Middle East. I suppose the silver lining is that a lot of these gains came at the expense of gutting the economies of “allies” like Europe and south Korea, which means that the US won’t have as much to easily prey on next time.
What are your thoughts?
I agree on certain points and disagree on others.
Yes, China’s economy’s not doing well, and they are spending less on BRI. Thankfully DFC is not actually picking up the slack and eating China’s lunch due to structural reasons, but Chinese influence is lesser than before. This is only heightened by China’s refusal to apply real pressure or voice for geopolitically hot topics such as the wars in Donbass and Gaza. I can’t blame them being passive as there will be a harsh reaction if they do act.
I fundamentally disagree on American economic indicators. Labor participation rate still hasn’t reached pre-pandemic levels although it is rising. The American economy is definitely generating more dollars, but that is different from livability. Surveys reveal that Americans are feeling financially insecure on a personal level. Cost of essential goods such as food, transportation (cars), and housing (rent or mortgage) has outpaced wage increases for all but the top 1%. Even those who are making over $100,000 a year are feeling the pressure. I do admit that energy/fuel prices have gone down a lot which is positive.
The real workhorses of the American empire - Japan, S. Korea and Germany - are being hollowed out heavily, and that will diminish American power. When truly parasitic states such as Spain and Australia suffer, it doesn’t affect America much. It’s a different matter when it comes to technological and industrial powerhouses as they enable America to continue its lead over core technologies and its processes.
My view of the world is that it’s not zero-sum in most respects. China’s doing bad, but so are America and her allies. The world is simply in a degenerative state at the moment.