I don’t know, if Iceland were doing something that would impact me, I don’t know if I have a good enough grasp on Icelands political system to make good strategic decisions.
The idea that because someone is hurt by something they would automatically know the best course of action is sorta nonsense. If a bear attacks me and a biologist that studies bears shouts advice at me, going “you fucking chauvinist colonialist asshole, the bear isn’t even attacking you, stay in your lane!” is probably a bad course of action.
America, one of the most powerful nations on earth, has one of the weirdest compromise ass backwards electoral systems on earth. I imagine a lot of Palestinians trying to survive right now aren’t having a ton of free time to brush up on the mechanics of the electoral college and the nuances of electoral politics. When the people they trust to do that in their name tell them “adopt a strategy that means your voice will be completely silenced” it might be a good time to assess whether or not they got that one right.
The worst thing ever to happen to Nate silver was guessing a few elections. I suspect he wanders around his house in a wizard cloak making predictions