The art of vassalisation: How Russia’s war on Ukraine has transformed transatlantic relations
ecfr.eu
Europeans’ response to Russia’s war on Ukraine confirms their profound dependence on the US – an unwise position given the security challenge in Europe and coming geopolitical competition with China.

The report is absolutely scathing. Some choice quotes:

But when the next crisis came, both the US and the governments of Europe fell back on old models of alliance leadership. Europe, as EU high representative for foreign affairs Josep Borrell loudly lamented prior to Russia’s invasion, is not really at the table when it comes to dealing with the Russia-Ukraine crisis. It has instead embarked on a process of vassalisation.

But “alone” had a very specific meaning for Scholz. He was unwilling to send Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine unless the US also sent its own main battle tank, the M1 Abrams. It was not enough that other partners would send tanks or that the US might send other weapons. Like a scared child in a room full of strangers, Germany felt alone if Uncle Sam was not holding its hand.

Europeans’ lack of agency in the Russia-Ukraine crisis stems from this growing power imbalance in the Western alliance. Under the Biden administration, the US has become ever more willing to exercise this growing influence.

  • albiguEnglish
    2·
    1 year ago

    Yes and no. Russia did have a greater goal, and now Putin (no “they”, any more) is left with the goal to stay in power.

    Could you please provided me with an extensive source that goes in-depth on this “greater goal”. Googling has not provided me with any in-depth results.

      • albiguEnglish
        3·
        1 year ago

        I’m not claiming I know much about Russia, much to the contrary I wish to learn more. Which is why I’d like it if you recommended some trusted source that replicates and expands your analysis because, as you know, the internet is riddled with disinformation. If the speech you refer to it this one, it doesn’t seem to have any issue with an independent Ukraine outside the currently annexed lands. What is wrong in my interpretation there of the war goal then?

          • albiguEnglish
            2·
            1 year ago

            Oh sorry, I didn’t mean to implied you suggested that their plan was annexation, but rather that the general war goal was to topple the Ukrainian govt instead of just keeping the current regions, which was the official war goal from the very beginning. None of the words I’ve found coming directly from the Kremlin seem to support such notion. Apparently Ukraine has already conceded to all but the land demands for an year now. If those demands are all met, is there any reason to believe Russia would escalate the conflict? Remember, this discussion started because of my disagreement with your following statement on the grounds that Russia doesn’t seem intent on controlling any more than the currently annexed areas.

            Russia can’t even fucking match Ukraine which is being drip-fed surplus.

              • albiguEnglish
                1·
                1 year ago

                Russia is on the retreat, its defensive lines are soon going to break.

                Considering you didn’t really push back on the basis of the claim that Russia has very little interest in anything but the formally annexed areas, I don’t see why this matters. If Russia needs only to hold onto what they annexed, it’s not on them to match the Ukrainian army, but on the Ukrainian army to match and surpass the Russian defence now. They have more or less been holding on the position for 1 whole year, despite sanctions and economic warfare. And they still mainly only lay claim to the annexed territories and demand Ukraine out of NATO (which I’m pretty sure is already a settled deal) in order for peace talks. So if the ball is in Ukraine’s court to push out the Russian forces off of those regions, I don’t think it’s accurate to say that “Russia can’t match Ukraine” on a stalemate with Russia on a favourable position for so long, with only now some sign of Ukraine retaking the territory. I don’t think it matters too much what speculation we have on what is “going to” happen for the sake of that argument. Also, for the sake of my curiosity, do you want this war to end as soon as possible?

                  • albiguEnglish
                    1·
                    1 year ago

                    And you wanted to tell me Russia would stand a chance even against, say, France, alone.

                    I would never suggest such hypothetical as it doesn’t even make sense from a geopolitical perspective for either party in my opinion. Neither would ever declare war on each other alone as things stand. My point is that I don’t believe you are correct in saying that “Russia can’t match Ukraine” given that they have achieved their official war goal a whole year ago. Feel free to correct me with some official Russian statement on how they actually want anything more than those 4 Oblasts and Ukraine out of NATO, things that are already well within their grasps.

                    The situation you’re looking at right now is nowhere close to a stalemate. The reason we only now see Ukrainian gains is because a) weather and b) Ukraine training troops, receiving hardware from the west, etc, for the last months.

                    That seems to be the definition of a stalemate, yes. If the stalemate is ending now, we will only be able to tell in the future. If neither side is making gains due to logistics, strategy or elements outside of their control, I don’t know what to call it other than a stalemate.

                    Why would Ukraine start an offensive in unsuitable weather with disorganised forces with cracked tires and reactive armor [sic] replaced by cardboard: They’re not Russians.

                    Do you dislike Russians as a people or something? That seems like a weird comparison to make on basis of ethnicity alone.

                    If you have any illusions about that consider their military response to an armed rebellion.

                    Are the Russian forces supposed to be able to match both Ukrainian and Russian forces now?

                    I want Russia’s imperial aggression to cease as soon as possible. And as they don’t seem to be willing to leave willingly they will need to be driven out.

                    But is that more important than ending the war as soon as possible? Can there be no peace so long as Russia occupies the 4 oblasts? In other words, can peace only come if Ukraine wins a decisive victory and not a day before? For the record, I am generally in favour of an immediate cease fire so that negotiations can happen without further spilling of blood.