Yes. Because they are 100% dependent on external material support, the way that their situation is perceived has real material consequences for Ukraine.
The thinking is that if it takes sacrificing fifty tanks to maintain the perception of successful resistance that may get them a hundred more to replace them.
So far their math seems to be wrong. It doesn’t look like they’re coming out ahead. Also the trained manpower they are losing is even harder to replace.
But the second line of thinking behind sacrificing huge amounts of manpower and materiel just to hold on to a few more square kilometers for a few more weeks or months is that they hope that eventually something will magically materialize that will turn the tide.
Either a regime change in Russia, or a direct intervention by NATO is their dream scenario. Or somehow managing to beg and grovel until they get enough stuff together that they can pull off a counter-offensive, though what they hope to achieve with it apart from maybe reviving the enthusiasm in the west by showing success and keeping the grift going for a few more months is anyone’s guess.
Because they a) can’t reverse the larger trend of slowly losing the war of attrition, and b) if they are hoping to humiliate Russia by taking some territory and thereby trigger some sort of political crisis in Moscow i think they are mistaken, in fact that would more likely cause Russia to escalate even further and take off the gloves entirely, especially if the moderates now in charge are replaced by some actual hardliners.
Yes. Because they are 100% dependent on external material support, the way that their situation is perceived has real material consequences for Ukraine.
The thinking is that if it takes sacrificing fifty tanks to maintain the perception of successful resistance that may get them a hundred more to replace them.
So far their math seems to be wrong. It doesn’t look like they’re coming out ahead. Also the trained manpower they are losing is even harder to replace.
But the second line of thinking behind sacrificing huge amounts of manpower and materiel just to hold on to a few more square kilometers for a few more weeks or months is that they hope that eventually something will magically materialize that will turn the tide.
Either a regime change in Russia, or a direct intervention by NATO is their dream scenario. Or somehow managing to beg and grovel until they get enough stuff together that they can pull off a counter-offensive, though what they hope to achieve with it apart from maybe reviving the enthusiasm in the west by showing success and keeping the grift going for a few more months is anyone’s guess.
Because they a) can’t reverse the larger trend of slowly losing the war of attrition, and b) if they are hoping to humiliate Russia by taking some territory and thereby trigger some sort of political crisis in Moscow i think they are mistaken, in fact that would more likely cause Russia to escalate even further and take off the gloves entirely, especially if the moderates now in charge are replaced by some actual hardliners.