Taipei, Jan. 13 (CNA) No party won a majority in Taiwan's Legislative Yuan for the first time since 2004, after Saturday's elections saw the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) win 51 seats, the Kuomintang (KMT) 52, and the Taiwan People's Party (TPP) eight.
Ultimately once you cut past all the theatre and posturing, the hard facts are that Taiwan is entirely dependent on China economically, and that there is no scenario where it can win against China militarily even with the best possible support that separatists can hope for. In the long run, reunification is the only possible outcome here.
I expect that a lot of the oligarchs in Taiwan understand this perfectly well, and they can see also how things are playing out in Ukraine. I suspect that when push comes to shove, a lot ofthem will find whatever terms China offers to be preferable to being used as a proxy.
That said, it’s pretty clear that China would prefer to maintain the status quo to taking military action because it plays in China’s favor. As time goes on, Chinese military is becoming increasingly more capable, China is insulating itself from the west economically, and securing resources that will be needed in case there’s a break down in relations with the west. At the same time, US influence is waning globally, and its military is finding itself increasingly overstretched. Time is on China’s side here.
The only scenario I can see where China takes military action would be if US tried putting missiles that can attack the mainland in Taiwan or some other equivalent type of provocation that crosses the red lines of China’s security. Given how unhinged US regime is, this is of course an entirely plausible scenario.
This is the big risk Taiwan is taking by playing the game it’s currently playing. US knows that their window for military option is closing, and if that means they could choose to push Taiwan into war.
Ultimately once you cut past all the theatre and posturing, the hard facts are that Taiwan is entirely dependent on China economically, and that there is no scenario where it can win against China militarily even with the best possible support that separatists can hope for. In the long run, reunification is the only possible outcome here.
I expect that a lot of the oligarchs in Taiwan understand this perfectly well, and they can see also how things are playing out in Ukraine. I suspect that when push comes to shove, a lot ofthem will find whatever terms China offers to be preferable to being used as a proxy.
That said, it’s pretty clear that China would prefer to maintain the status quo to taking military action because it plays in China’s favor. As time goes on, Chinese military is becoming increasingly more capable, China is insulating itself from the west economically, and securing resources that will be needed in case there’s a break down in relations with the west. At the same time, US influence is waning globally, and its military is finding itself increasingly overstretched. Time is on China’s side here.
The only scenario I can see where China takes military action would be if US tried putting missiles that can attack the mainland in Taiwan or some other equivalent type of provocation that crosses the red lines of China’s security. Given how unhinged US regime is, this is of course an entirely plausible scenario.
This is the big risk Taiwan is taking by playing the game it’s currently playing. US knows that their window for military option is closing, and if that means they could choose to push Taiwan into war.