While the Western response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine was clear from the start, the objective has been nebulous. After over a year of fighting, the likely direction of this war is coming into focus.
Well, that depends on how you define win. If to win is to retake all of the pre-2014 Ukrainian territories, then yes, the war is most probably unwinnable, but if to win is to stop the war and to get back the pre-2022 borders, then that could also be considered a victory.
I mean first off, I did read it. Secondly, the article itself even states that the war can be won if you consider wining being Ukraine’s prosperity (last paragraph).
Also, you never know, it’s always possible that Ukraine makes a breakthrough and the Russian frontline collapses, allowing them to retake the South. Even if that doesn’t happen, if they inflict enough damage and Russia sees political upheaval, it’s possible that Putin gets forced to concede defeat and give back Ukraine its territory. That most probably wouldn’t include Crimea, and the Donbas could probably be made a independent state, but if that ends the bloodshed then that’s a win.
No, it’s not possible that Ukraine makes any sort of lasting breakthrough or that Russian frontlines will magically collapse. These are deranged fantasies that are resulting in thousands of people dying every day.
The reality of the situation is that the west has basically sent all it has to offer to Ukraine at this point. The new round of air that US just authorized is not coming from existing stocks anymore, it’s contracts to companies to produce these things which will take years to do.
Even if Ukraine managed to achieve a break through, it’s going to come at the cost of the army that the west managed to cobble together for Ukraine. In the first five days of the offensive, Ukraine has already burnt through incredible amounts of men and machines to achieve no actual breakthroughs. They haven’t even made it to the first line of the multi line defences that Russia has created. This is very obviously not sustainable.
Almost the entire forward defense line of the Russian army near Velyka Novosilka - around 20 km long - has been wiped out. Ukrainian forces liberated Neskuchne and Novodonets’ke.
The current estimate is that the US has provided 5% of its defense budget to Ukraine. If this were increased to even 7%?
That’s the crumple zone, the first out of five defence lines is kilometers away from that. At the rate of depletion, the offensive will burn out before it even gets to the first fortified line.
Meanwhile, US is only able to produce 20k artillery shells a month, while Russia is producing around 200k right now. It will literally take years for US to ramp up industrial production. Pretty much everything in the latest package to Ukraine is on order, it’s not coming out of existing stocks anymore.
Well, that depends on how you define win. If to win is to retake all of the pre-2014 Ukrainian territories, then yes, the war is most probably unwinnable, but if to win is to stop the war and to get back the pre-2022 borders, then that could also be considered a victory.
I recommend actually reading the report before commenting.
I mean first off, I did read it. Secondly, the article itself even states that the war can be won if you consider wining being Ukraine’s prosperity (last paragraph).
Also, you never know, it’s always possible that Ukraine makes a breakthrough and the Russian frontline collapses, allowing them to retake the South. Even if that doesn’t happen, if they inflict enough damage and Russia sees political upheaval, it’s possible that Putin gets forced to concede defeat and give back Ukraine its territory. That most probably wouldn’t include Crimea, and the Donbas could probably be made a independent state, but if that ends the bloodshed then that’s a win.
No, it’s not possible that Ukraine makes any sort of lasting breakthrough or that Russian frontlines will magically collapse. These are deranged fantasies that are resulting in thousands of people dying every day.
The reality of the situation is that the west has basically sent all it has to offer to Ukraine at this point. The new round of air that US just authorized is not coming from existing stocks anymore, it’s contracts to companies to produce these things which will take years to do.
Even if Ukraine managed to achieve a break through, it’s going to come at the cost of the army that the west managed to cobble together for Ukraine. In the first five days of the offensive, Ukraine has already burnt through incredible amounts of men and machines to achieve no actual breakthroughs. They haven’t even made it to the first line of the multi line defences that Russia has created. This is very obviously not sustainable.
https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1667648741740892161?s=20
The current estimate is that the US has provided 5% of its defense budget to Ukraine. If this were increased to even 7%?
That’s the crumple zone, the first out of five defence lines is kilometers away from that. At the rate of depletion, the offensive will burn out before it even gets to the first fortified line.
Meanwhile, US is only able to produce 20k artillery shells a month, while Russia is producing around 200k right now. It will literally take years for US to ramp up industrial production. Pretty much everything in the latest package to Ukraine is on order, it’s not coming out of existing stocks anymore.
Meanwhile, Russia hasn’t committed much to this either so far. What happens if US increases its support is that Russia will increase its efforts in turn.
Don’t take it from me though, here’s what Obama said in 2016, pretty sure he’s more informed on the subject than you are.
lol @ all the white redditors who don’t understand what defense in depth is
They’re gonna learn all about it in the next few weeks.