While the Western response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine was clear from the start, the objective has been nebulous. After over a year of fighting, the likely direction of this war is coming into focus.
This is really the only statement in the article that still needs to addressed:
Regardless of how much territory Ukrainian forces can liberate, Russia will maintain the capability to pose a permanent threat to Ukraine.
Short of invading the internationally recognized territory of Russia, Russia will continue to be a threat into the foreseeable future. The only way to deal with this, is by supporting independence minded groups within Russia. Before their latest incursion into Ukraine, such a statement would have been laughed at, and rightfully so. But, as we have seen in recent weeks, there is at least one group bordering Ukraine that is making it clear that Putin does not control all of Russia.
There are far more internal political tensions in every western country right now than there are in Russia. It’s far more likely that western countries end up looking at regime changes in the near future than any kind of breakup in Russia. Anybody who thinks that Russia can be balkanized by the west is absolutely delusional.
I don’t like Russia and breaking it up would be a disaster. Think of all of the regional power vacuums that would develop. Think of the wars that would break out between these groups for control of the gas fields, for the nickel mines, for port access. Super bad idea atm.
This is really the only statement in the article that still needs to addressed:
Short of invading the internationally recognized territory of Russia, Russia will continue to be a threat into the foreseeable future. The only way to deal with this, is by supporting independence minded groups within Russia. Before their latest incursion into Ukraine, such a statement would have been laughed at, and rightfully so. But, as we have seen in recent weeks, there is at least one group bordering Ukraine that is making it clear that Putin does not control all of Russia.
There are far more internal political tensions in every western country right now than there are in Russia. It’s far more likely that western countries end up looking at regime changes in the near future than any kind of breakup in Russia. Anybody who thinks that Russia can be balkanized by the west is absolutely delusional.
I don’t like Russia and breaking it up would be a disaster. Think of all of the regional power vacuums that would develop. Think of the wars that would break out between these groups for control of the gas fields, for the nickel mines, for port access. Super bad idea atm.