Economy Secretary Marcelo Ebrard recently asserted that the Latin American country must pursue more incisive legislation to achieve an import substitution model, especially for goods from the Asian market. Analysts consulted by Sputnik discuss the challenges and dangers of this strategy.

“The most successful countries and companies are those that have an aggressive industrial policy. A country without an aggressive industrial policy will not fare well ,” the official asserted on November 18. Ebrard explained that if Mexico does not adopt the same type of policies as the US and China , competition “will wipe out entire industries, which you then cannot replace or rebuild.”

In addition to the statements made by the high-ranking Mexican official, in January of this year, the Mexican government presented Plan Mexico, one of whose guidelines is to boost domestic production and reduce reliance on imports from countries with significant influence in international trade. Furthermore, as part of its new tax collection strategy, Mexican authorities have raised the possibility of imposing tariffs of up to 50% on imports of Chinese light vehicles .

The tariffs that Mexico will impose on Asian countries seek to reduce the trade deficit that exists with this region, Ebrard stated at the time, detailing that, in four years, it grew by more than 80%, which is why measures were needed to reverse the gap.

“From 2020 to 2024, it grew by 83%. If we don’t take action, there will be no way to finance that. In four years, it was more than 80%, almost doubling,” he stated. The Mexican Secretary of Economy added that another reason is that the Latin American nation imports products at costs “below the reference price.” “That means there are many strategies to gain market share. There’s stockpiling of inventory. This causes significant damage to our production capacity,” he warned.

“There is a real need to restructure the trade balance.”

In an interview with Sputnik, Óscar Rojas Silva, PhD in Economics, pointed out that China’s export boom over the last two decades has generated a trade deficit in most trade balances , which adds to the neoliberal trend of dismantling the instruments that the State has to execute autonomous planning and policies.

" There is a real need to restructure the balances of all countries to protect their sovereignty, and to do this, they need to take care of the evolution of their own industries, avoiding any flow that, in a disproportionate or uncontrolled way, could affect economies," the analyst explained.

In the case of Mexico, Rojas Silva elaborated, past governments—which promoted the neoliberal model—had very little capacity and very little willingness to implement policies of a more sovereignist nature.

“As of today, the structure of the Mexico Plan implies that we can move towards an import substitution model; in other words, we can do it. But this isn’t against anyone; rather, it’s in favor of strengthening the conditions of the domestic market , which is very important and has been neglected in recent times. It’s about having the sovereignty to make decisions and alleviate the dependence we may have on different production chains,” he added.

According to official data , in May 2025 alone, Mexico’s international sales to China totaled $686 million , while purchases from the Asian country reached $10.64 billion. This resulted in a negative trade balance of $9.954 billion.

Pressure from the US?

Economist Josafat Hernández Cervantes told this publication that Mexico is taking a more aggressive stance towards China due to pressure from the United States.

“What the US has wanted is for Mexico not to be a country that triangulates products from China and to take advantage of the trade benefits our country has with Washington through Mexico and the Free Trade Agreement (USMCA) (…). These are imperialist pressures, pressures in the midst of this trade war between the United States and China where Mexico plays an important role as a pivot economy,” the analyst explained.

According to the expert, in the current geopolitical context, Mexico should consider its relationship with China in terms of greater cooperation. In that regard, he said that “it seems that Chinese products have been demonized, and that’s not necessarily the case.” Hernández Cervantes acknowledged that some Mexican industries, such as textiles, have been severely impacted by Chinese products—an industry he believes should be strengthened through trade strategies. However, he cautioned that Mexico’s automotive industry would be harmed by imposing tariffs on products from the Asian giant.

“If trade policies are to be implemented aggressively, they must go hand in hand with a process of industrial development (…). China has been making significant progress in the automotive sector, particularly in the electric vehicle industry, where it has a considerable advantage over the North American and European industries (…). In the case of Mexico, it seems that tariffs are being used to defend the United States’ sphere of influence in our country ,” he added.

According to Óscar Rojas, the Latin American country should focus on “economic diplomacy” with the Asian giant and open itself to dialogue with all countries.

Does Mexico have the capacity?

Both analysts agree that Mexico currently lacks the capacity to fully replace its imports from China; however, they said, the country should begin considering this process and start it gradually .

Óscar Rojas pointed out that Mexico is emerging from the “disease” of having a fragmented economy. “What the Mexico Plan is doing is structuring it, so we are now in the process of consolidating that possibility, and we have to start somewhere ,” he noted.

Meanwhile, Josafat Hernández indicated that, at this time, the Latin American country does not have that capacity for import substitution, and that it is a process that requires years.

“What can be done is to orient industrial policy in that direction to have an industrialization plan that in the short-medium, but above all in the long term, will bear fruit, and for that we need to give it continuity,” he stated.