If he keeps this up, he’ll drag the entire Republican Party down with him in 2024.
To me, this article seems to be arguing that Trump will probably end up in the General election, but will lose by a wide margin because he has become more extreme and has pending legal action against him. I would say this sounds pretty similar to what many argued in 2016, though circumstances are admittedly very different now. What hasn’t changed is my lack of faith in a large percentage of the American population who either don’t vote or vote in hatred.
It’s weird how people still bring up 2016 like 2020 didn’t happen. I get it, we can’t know for sure and people got burned that one time. But he’s hardly a winner.
In fact he lost the popular vote both times and the candidates he backed during the midterms lost for the most part. His entire track record is losing.
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Democrats won the White House and the Senate and retained control of the House.
Quit your gaslighting.
Uhh, the Dems controlled the House after 2020, Manchin and Sinema notwithstanding.
Yes - the 2020 where Republicans failed to gain control of either house and lost the presidency.
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2016 was pure gift. He was as surprised as everyone else when he won. He’s all in now, it’s that or prison.
Promise?
This article was like… if a YouTuber had a journalism job but no training. Pretty hard to read and editorialized heavily.
Don’t believe anything you read about the trump machine imploding.
Vote. Don’t be complacent.
I sure hope so, but I won’t be holding my breath. Can’t fix stupid and there is a lot of stupid.
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Is Trump the turd and the GOP the street in this analogy? Or the turd is the GOP and Trump the one stepping on it?
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It is 100% worth remaining hungry, remaining diligent, remaining skeptical, remaining active.
But we are in a very different climate right now. I think the big difference is that unlike 2015, people have actually seen what a trump presidency looks like. There are absolutely republicans that will refuse to vote for him, and he was bad enough that he will drive record high turnout from democrats.
Ah yes, because the stable genius depended so heavily on his marbles when he won the first time.
He’s losing some marbles nobody knew he had any more.
Trump is probably demented too. Yes, Biden is demented.
Uhh, what the hell is this article talking about? His approval has remained steady with both Republicans and all Americans, and even saw a small uptick recently..
Sounds like they’re still operating under 2020 and 2022 logic. Biden is pretty widely disliked nowadays outside his own party and 2024 should in no way be viewed as an easy Dem win.
outside his own party
That’s probably true but that party keeps getting bigger.
By the survey numbers that’s untrue, in terms of the share of voters. Gallup polls indicate the share of people who identify as Democrats has decreased consistently for about a decade, with a heavier decrease in the past three years.. Republicans have remained consistently lower than Dems, but that margin has shrunk considerably over the past decade. Independents make up the largest (and only growing) share of votes.
Granted, this is just survey identification. I have no doubt voter registrations are much more partisan. But, I’d argue being de facto corralled into one of two political parties due to voter registration requirements isn’t the same as a “growing party”.
This is a very weird poll
in terms of the share of voters
I would argue that the huge amount of independents is everyone saying that they don’t want to be pigeon holed into anything online. No one wants that mail. We’ll never know how many R’s we’ve lost to the pandemic either, a lot of those states didn’t keep track of the deaths. I would never go on a Biden is awesome tour but he’s done way better than I ever thought he would/could. Trump & Desantis are actively and openly destroying democracy. So even if I call myself an independent, it’s an easy vote.
So I hope I don’t come off as too aggressive or anything here, I just want to combat as much of the classic Reddit misinformation while this space is still small
the huge number of independents is everyone saying that they don’t want to be pigeon holed into anything online
That isn’t how a Gallup poll works. It’s a randomized phone survey with elected participation. Now obviously there’s inherent self-selection bias with any such survey, but it’s still at least an indicator of trends. This type of poll is the best for assessing party sentiment, which is what the subject of the article is about and what my original comment was addressing.
We’ll never know how many Rs we’ve lost to the pandemic either
I don’t understand why people started thinking this? States may have done a bad job reporting cause of deaths, but the death still gets reported. Like… do people think there are a ton of unmarked graves in Florida or something?
Excess deaths modeling over 2020-22 means it’s pretty easy to figure out how many people died in the pandemic. Whether those people were R voters can be reasonably predicted from county/demographic makeup, such as this study here..
But to your point, if all we care about is who votes for whom in 2024, we can just survey that too. And surveys from basically every site, R or D funded, have the race at a dead heat with Biden only slightly edging out Trump.. Now as we learned in 2016, polls can be very, very wrong, but they’re really all we’ve got at this juncture.
Again, hope you don’t read this as aggressive, I just want people to be better informed and stop listening to blog posts like they’re legitimate truths.
I don’t think you’re aggressive at all, I think you’re cherry picking polls. https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm#dashboard
??? How could I cherry-pick polls? I sent you the five-thirty-eight page containing a summary of all polls submitted lol
Not sure why you sent me the CDC excess deaths link? That data reflects the exact trends you’d expect.
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Centrism, not even once
Can’t wait for the whole Republican party to go extinct
Doubtful. The more he rants and the crazier it sounds, the more his supporters love it. They foam at the mouth for his schtick.
Flood the media with as much insane rambling as you can. That way, when you tell the truth, it still sounds insane.
His supporters will pick what they want from the salad he spits out and eat it up. Meanwhile, his dissenters have to work through it to make sense of it.
He’s been playing psych games since day one.
Inshallah
Lord willing
I’ve heard this song before and I’m not dancing to it again
I have doubts. I can already see a low Dem turnout on the horizon. They need to push the mail-in ballot advantage again now that many are back in the office.
They’re never going to do that when the fund raising numbers went through the roof under Trump.
Did you know that Pelosi and Schumer gave the Trump administration an even bigger military budget inscrease than they were even asking for on two separate occasions?
Schumer fast-tracked all of Trump’s appointments too.
So even they don’t believe the Russiagate bullshit they’re still repeating. If Russiagate was real, why did Biden win? I guess Biden is a Putin puppet.
Too bad the democrats cheated Bernie twice in a row.
Nobody cheated Bernie. He just wasn’t popular enough to win. My god, move on.
Super Delegates. The primary in 2016 was rigged for Hillary and the 2020 primary was rigged for Biden.
The general was legit in both of those though.
Superdelegates didn’t decide the 2016 election. And if you have any evidence of 2020 “rigging”, I’d love to see it.
Lived through it myself.
That’s beside the point. The DNC rigged the primaries to hands the nomination to Biden. I wish they would spend as much energy fighting the fascists for once.
The only difference between the two parties is what they virtue-signal about.
They’re both in favor of more war, they’re both against fixing broken things here at home. Remember when Obama Pretended that Flint Michigan’s water was fine? Or Fracking causing flammable tap water in the middle of the country?
Okay, Well Trump and republicans didn’t lift a fucking finger to fix either of those issues, and Biden probably isn’t even aware of those two problems. The richest country in the world has a large number of whole states now with toxic chemicals in their water supplies.
2016, I agree. He was cheated and could’ve beaten Trump.
2020? Not so sure. Even Bernie himself admitted that Joe Biden’s pro working class policies and bottom up, middle out economic plan was very similar to his. He even said that his campaign team was so glad that Joe Biden didn’t run in 2016. Bernie himself stated that Joe Biden was so sincerely for the average working American, that even though Biden was basically “Bernie Lite”, he wasn’t sure he could win against Joe.
If we look at what Joe Biden’s been doing for this country, including passing the infrastructure bills, limited gun restrictions, and the Inflation reduction act, we see that he is kind of “Bernie Lite” and honestly, it’s SO much better than Trump, that I’ll take it.
I don’t disagree with what you say about being Bernie light, but it doesn’t mean that it wasn’t stolen away from Bernie (or at least whoever was going to be the viable challenger to Bernie). In the primaries, Biden was laughably irrelevant. The media was barely considering him a contender. Then one night the DNC made up their minds and had the entire machine mobilize to gaslight the primary.
The main reason Biden is Bernie light is because he had to be as a political concession to unify the party.
Evidence?
Joe Biden isn’t in favor of the working class, he proved that when he forced the rail workers to continue working.
Biden promised $2000 checks, he gave us $600, he promised a lot of very progressive things and in most of those cases he’s done the right-wing thing to do on those issues.
Kids are still in cases as the mexican border and he was VP when Obama started doing that, if he had a problem with it, he could’ve said something about it then or better yet, he could do something about it now, but he hasn’t and he won’t. He was in favor of segregation back in the day and said that he didn’t want his kids “growing up in a racial jungle” Again, that’s Biden’s words on that issue, back when he was a senator and his hair was a lot darker.
Biden wrote the mandatory minimum sentencing laws on crack and heroine, but won’t apply that standard to his son who’s on video with possession of enough crack to get about 20 life sentences.
Bernie was/is too old to run for president. He was also less moderate than Biden. I’d argue Biden and Trump are too old to be president.
Biden is pretty fucking old too. The oldest to ever be elected. He has pretty severe dementia too. I know a lot of old folks that went down that road.
Yet he nonetheless proved to be quite capable in his role. As much as I love Bernie, I prefer the safe Biden rather than risking losing to Trump/De Sanctis.
When was he diagnosed?
“Severe dementia” is far different than the old person behavior that Biden occasionally exhibits, which is like, saying the wrong word once or twice while speaking for half an hour. The “he doesn’t know what room he’s in!!1!” claims are absurd. When you listen to him talk for a while he’s perfectly coherent, though people like to cherry pick 1-2 lines out of context to try to pretend he’s doddering and incoherent.
