Labour could be swept into power with a landslide of more than 400 seats at the next general election, according to the latest YouGov mega poll.
The survey of 18,000 people predicts Sir Keir Starmer’s party will win a parliamentary majority of 154 - almost double what the Conservatives achieved with Boris Johnson in 2019.
The poll forecasts Labour will win 403 seats, a gain of 201, while the Tories will crash to just 155 seats - a loss of 210.
If correct, the result would be a worse defeat for the Conservatives than under Sir John Major in 1997, when the rise of Sir Tony Blair’s New Labour left them with just 165 MPs.
Key Conservatives projected to lose their seats include Chancellor Jeremy Hunt, cabinet ministers Grant Shapps and Penny Mordaunt and former party leader Sir Iain Duncan Smith.
They’ll still be in a mess, and people will expect them to have an answer to brexit, and progress will be slow, but too slow for muck rakers, and they’ll get replaced because they’re “incompetent”, by the torries.
Same as it ever was, all across the world. Everyone just accepts the status quo, but if progressives are elected and the problems aren’t immediately solved then it’s back to the shit show from before
I think it will largely depend on what state the Conservative Party is in by 2029. They are going to be facing a lot of internal turmoil and a dearth of political talent.
If the party is still in visible disarray and/or in the hands of one the crazier fringes, an incumbent Labour will likely weather that storm with a reduced majority. If they can manage another Cameron-esque reinvention in the space of one term they will fair better.
I wouldn’t discount the presence of Reform, or even the Lib Dem’s either. This is the most at risk our two party system has been for some time.
Any time a political party gets an effective ‘super-majority’ they have a narrow window to prove they are worthy of such electoral faith. If they come through and enact policies to help people, they will be amply rewarded.
Sadly, history has shown everyone falling into internecine conflict and squandering the opportunity. Let’s see if this time it will be different.
I’m a Labour member and I don’t want to see them get this sort of majority. There needs to be some sort of functioning opposition to keep them honest and to serve as a threat that the good times won’t last forever.
Could the lib dems or greens serve as the opposition for once? Having a green opposition to a labour government might be a nice change to drive things in the right direction. I realise this is somewhat a pipe dream
Indeed. Any party that is essentially given carte blanche to do whatever they like is a bad thing for democracy.
Although they could just end up like the Conservatives after the 2019 election, where they got a big majority and did absolutely nothing with it.
Back when Boris resigned and the headlines said that the Tories would return single digit seats in a full wipeout, I made a £100 bet with a friend who was excited by the news that the Tories would win the next election regardless. I am that confident in the UK population’s obsession with shooting themselves in both feet. Hell I might even go and raise the bet.
Pretty much. Otherwise we’d have AV and would have remained in the EU.
This is the best summary I could come up with:
The survey of 18,000 people predicts Sir Keir Starmer’s party will win a parliamentary majority of 154 - almost double what the Conservatives achieved with Boris Johnson in 2019.
Key Conservatives projected to lose their seats include Chancellor Jeremy Hunt, cabinet ministers Grant Shapps and Penny Mordaunt and former party leader Sir Iain Duncan Smith.
Read More:Labour can take comfort as ‘mega’ poll shows they are on right path - but remain wary of complacencyTories in ‘dire position’ and ‘good MPs will lose seats’ at general election
It is generally considered one of the most accurate forms of polling due to the number of interviews conducted, which enables pollsters to examine voting intentions in very small geographical areas.
Tory MP Brendan Clarke-Smith, who is projected to lose his seat to Labour, posted on X that the polling model is “clearly flawed and fails to factor in my infectious charm and charisma”.
Despite a double-digit lead in the polls for some time now, Sir Keir Starmer has imposed an iron discipline on his shadow cabinet about the danger of complacency.
The original article contains 600 words, the summary contains 179 words. Saved 70%. I’m a bot and I’m open source!
