edit: changed title from ‘False Fukushima Fears’ to ‘Exaggerated Fukushima Fears’, sacrificing my lovely alliteration as others have pointed out that it would be too much to say that the fears of radiation leakages are unfounded, but merely to say that this is the least bad option given previous precedent as cynesthesia has pointed out.

Image is of the large array of water storage tanks holding the tritium-contaminated water.

This week’s preamble is very kindly provided by our beautiful poster @cynesthesia@hexbear.net, with some light editing. In periods where not much of earth-shattering importance is happening in the news, I hope to do this more often!

In 2011, the Fukushima nuclear incident occurred. Since then, water has been used to cool radioactive waste and debris, which contaminates the water with radioactive isotopes. Currently, TEPCO, the Japanese energy company that is reponsible to Fukushima, is storing about 1.3 million m3 of contaminated water (equivalent to about 500 Olympic swimming pools for our American friends) in about 1000 tanks. Approximately 100,000 m3 of contaminated cooling water is generated per year to this day. TEPCO doesn’t want to store escalating volumes of nuclear waste for decades until half-lives are spent. This would mean adding substantial storage capacity every year at increased cost and risk of tank spills.

The contaminated water includes heavier isotopes like caesium as well as hydrogen’s isotope, tritum. Caesium is a big atom at 137 molar mass (we love our tremendous atoms, folks) while tritium is heavy hydrogen and has only a molar mass of 3 (pathetic, low energy). The TEPCO people are using water treatment to remove heavy isotopes from water, but not tritium. The large adult isotopes are easy to remove with treatment but tritium is incorporated into water, so it blends in with the others. The treated Fukushima water contains low levels of the big isotopes but still contains tritium.

Isotopes release radiation that damages the body’s cells. The longer an individual molecule containing an isotope is in a body, the more likely it is that the isotope will go BRAZAP and release radiation that fucks up the cells. Bioaccumulation is a toxicology term for how certain contaminants can accumulate in the food cycle. For example, algae eat contaminants, then the algae is eaten by bugs, then bugs by fish, then fish by people. Isotopes that are bioaccumulative like our large adult son caesium are more hazardous. Tritium is not bioaccumulative because it is effectively part of water. Water cycles through bodies quickly - that’s why you sweat and pee and get thirsty. spray-bottle

Fukushima water would be treated and then then mixed with seawater at a ratio of 1:800 before it is pumped 1km offshore. Each year approximately 166,000 m3 of treated water will be released, which will draw down the volume of contaminated water being stored over a few decades. Real-time stats associated with the release are found here. At the point of discharge, water contains about 207 Bq/L of radioactivity, about 16 times greater than the 10-15 Bq/L background level in the ocean overall. Drinking water guidelines for tritium radioactivity range from 1,000-10,000 Bq/L, if one were to drink seawater.

In wastewater treatment terms, this is a small amount of dilution in a very large body of water. It is unlikely to have any measurable impact per the terms of Western science. In the context of mother nature taking yet another one for the team and environmental distress, this sucks. In the context of making the best of a shitty situation, the Fukushima water release is peanuts compared to the many other environmental liabilities that are not addressed. For example, the Hanford Site is an example of a nuclear wastewater storage facility gone/going wrong in Oregon.

Ending note by 72: By far the biggest impact of the release of this water won’t be its direct effects, but those on commerce and international relations. Almost half of Japanese aquatic exports go to China, comprising 8% of all Japanese firms shipping goods to China, and they have now been cut off due to their anger at Japan. Perhaps this reaction and the cancellation of imports was inevitable, as nuclear power and radiation in general is a poorly understood, frightening, and thus easily exploitable topic in every country. China is not the first country to use a misunderstanding of radiation risk to try and achieve a goal - Germany seems very pleased with itself - and they will not be the last.

In all: it is unequivocal that China is massively exaggerating the risks of this water’s release. However, the bellicose rhetoric and actions of Japan, South Korea, and America are a much greater danger to the region, and none of the three seem to be in any hurry to try diplomacy instead of increasing military budgets and gearing up for war.

It’s that time again - every two months I give myself a week off, to rest and recalibrate. Your regularly scheduled programming will resume next week.

Here is the map of the Ukraine conflict, courtesy of Wikipedia.

Links and Stuff

The bulletins site is down.

Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists

Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict

Add to the above list if you can.

Resources For Understanding The War

Defense Politics Asia’s youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.

Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.

Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.

Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don’t want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it’s just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.

On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists’ side.

Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.

Telegram Channels

Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.

Pro-Russian

https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR’s former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR’s forces. Russian language.

https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.

https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.

https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster’s telegram channel.

https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.

https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.

https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.

https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.

https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a ‘propaganda tax’, if you don’t believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.

https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.

Pro-Ukraine

Almost every Western media outlet.

https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.

https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.

Last week’s discussion post.

  • Teekeeus [comrade/them]@hexbear.netEnglish
    35·
    10 months ago

    US military promises ‘hellscape’ of drone swarming in future China war

    What better place than a National Defense Industrial Association confab to announce a new program in which “multiple thousands” of drones will be unleashed across land, sea, and sky “to counter the PLA’s [People’s Liberation Army’s] mass with mass of our own, but ours will be harder to plan for, harder to hit and harder to beat.”

    It rings a bit like science fiction but to a roomful of defense executives, Deputy Secretary of Defense Kathleen Hicks’ words on Monday must have been music to their ears. A lot of dollar signs. Especially when Adm. John Aquilino, head of U.S. Indo-Pacific Command, joined in and told the NDIA “Emerging Technologies for Defense” audience that there could be as many 1,000 drones deployed in 24 hours — “Here’s a metric for me: 1,000 targets for 24 hours.”

    At which point Hicks signaled that might be just the baseline. “We’ll also aim to replicate and inculcate how we will achieve that goal, so we can scale whatever’s relevant in the future again and again and again. Easier said than done? You bet. But we’re going to do it,” she said.

    Welcome to the second era of the drone war, the first being during the U.S. Global War on Terror, where drones like the MQ Reaper were primarily used for surveillance and manhunting. It was billed as an “evolution” in targeted conflict in which the government promised “cleaner” war with fewer civilian deaths and American boots on the ground. Today’s era is about “meshing” both surveillance and lethal action with a pronouncement of drones, all shapes and sizes, and not just the big expensive ones. This is being tested and improved everyday with tens of thousands of drones on both sides in Ukraine and now the Pentagon is promising the next level of that for its coming war with China.

    “While both combatants entered the war with drones, there has been a Cambrian explosion in missions and types of drones over the past 18 months,” gushed retired Australian army major general Mick Ryan in an article on Monday. “Just as the Cambrian period saw the most intense period of evolution in history, so too has the Ukraine War spawned a rapid evolution in these machines.”

    Ryan says the swarming of drones across the battlespace has resulted in “an extraordinary increase in the visibility of events on and beyond the battlefield.” This allows for “the speed of decision and action” and “the precision of engagements on the battlefield, as well as against strategic targets.” He also notes while Ukraine has been credited with advancing its drone technology more rapidly, its still losing in the ballpark of 10,000 UAVs a month.

    But the U.S. not only wants to replicate this (the project is literally called “Replicator”) for a future war, but it welcomes the challenge of ramping up an industrial base that is already struggling to fulfill orders to send promised U.S. weapons to Ukraine for its current war.

    To succeed in this, Hicks said the initiative has the full backing of the Secretary of the Defense and Defense Innovation Unit. It will require working with “non-traditional and traditional defense companies,” and that Congress “has the opportunity to be a key enabler in getting capabilities to the warfighter at speed and scale.” Read: give us more money and less red tape.

    Getting Congress on board won’t be difficult. First, point out the amazing opportunities of drone swarms, just like major general Ryan did in his op-ed. Next, explain, like Hicks does, that China is gaining on us. It’s most important asset is “mass” she said. “More ships. More missiles. More people.” The DoD must snap into action to challenge that.

    “We must ensure the PRC [People’s Republic of China] leadership wakes up every day, considers the risks of aggression, and concludes, ‘today is not the day’ – and not just today, but every day, between now and 2027, now and 2035, now and 2049, and beyond,” she said.

    Then, insure that their friends in the defense industry will be happy as most of the top five contractors have been seeding pieces of every major project in their districts for years, not to mention the $33 million in campaign contributions (in the 2022 cycle alone).

    absolutely deranged

    • nat_turner_overdrive [he/him]@hexbear.netEnglish
      33·
      10 months ago

      I’m imagining a massive US drone swarm just falling out of the sky because the Chinese electronics that managed to get into every one due to cost overruns and the profit motive have all got backdoors and are geofenced

      • Teekeeus [comrade/them]@hexbear.netEnglish
        27·
        10 months ago

        working with “non-traditional and traditional defense companies,”

        Inb4 the drone falls out of the sky and onto some random person working at the military installation/aircraft carrier (if it hasn’t been killed by a hypersonic missile)/etc because they forgot to pay the monthly subscription fee (only crypto accepted)

    • commiewithoutorgans [he/him, comrade/them]@hexbear.netEnglish
      26·
      10 months ago

      Definitely deranged, but I think the Chinese analysis is theoretically 30 years ahead. They decided long ago that the war path could be avoided at all costs and would be the peacemakers. The US can offensively act but China has been preparing for the fact that invasion of Taiwan is almost guaranteed a bad idea and will eventually either be the peacemaker for Taiwan or be beneficial to Taiwan enough that they peacefully tell the US to fuck off.

      This threat only works with American offensive moves which China would be able to use to get many other countries coming to their support

      Or I’m coping with this absurd level of firepower hahahah

      • PosadistInevitablity [he/him]@hexbear.netEnglish
        22·
        10 months ago

        There is effectively no way for the US to directly attack China short of ICBMs and submarines.

        If the politicians were bloodthirsty enough to invent a provocation and declare war (they would definitely say China started it, no matter how absurd) the entire Pacific fleet would be on the bottom of the Ocean in a matter of days.

        The US would have nowhere to launch these drones from.

        • Awoo [she/her]@hexbear.netEnglish
          12·
          10 months ago

          short of ICBMs

          The US would have nowhere to launch these drones from.

          ICBMs filled with drone swarms

            • Awoo [she/her]@hexbear.netEnglish
              4·
              10 months ago

              It’s viable. You’d need to do something special with the drones though. If it were me I’d design drones that are solar, can land and recharge. And function as explosive devices if tampered with. Effectively flying land mines with a long ability to function after deployment.

          • zephyreks@programming.devEnglish
            1·
            10 months ago

            How would you get a decent launch at that velocity? Designing drones to handle that kind of velocity sounds sort of rough

            • Awoo [she/her]@hexbear.netEnglish
              1·
              10 months ago

              You just have the ICBM break into a release stage in the sky above the target and have it scatter the drones inside.

              Cluster bombs is honestly the model you’d want to follow for it, they work like this:

              I mean, that’s essentially what these are right? They’re clusterbombs with quadcopters attached to them. Doing it via ICBM just means scaling up the payload and size.

              I want to point out that I’m not advocating for this. It’s a fucking horrible weapon idea that should banned because 99% of the casualties you’ll get from this will be civilian. But I expect to see it deployed at some point.

    • Gucci_Minh [he/him]@hexbear.netEnglish
      25·
      10 months ago

      Even if this comes to being a real program, how do they expect to make drone swarms? Are they going to buy them from DJI? xi

      The only manufacturing the USA has left is the MIC, and even they suck and cost 100x as much for literally anything.

    • Awoo [she/her]@hexbear.netEnglish
      10·
      10 months ago

      Drone swarming has potential but I can’t help but think there are some simple ways you can counter them.

      Individual drones in low numbers are exceptionally difficult to counter, but entire swarms? They become something you can plan for more properly and counter. One method that springs to mind is launching your own microwave emitting drones as a counter. Something that they are already testing.

      The biggest advantage of drones in current warfare is that they’re difficult to deal with as they’re small and slip through easily, planning for them is near impossible as is equipping everyone with the capabilities to counter them when they might not even come across them. This completely changes if they’re guaranteed to come across them, equipping everyone with countermeasures then makes sense, which then starts to limit the potential of swarming.

      You could also just reinvent air warfare but in miniaturised form, “drone superiority” could become a thing.

        • Awoo [she/her]@hexbear.netEnglish
          8·
          10 months ago

          If the only way to counter drone swarms is with your own drone swarm, then it is fair to assume that once you establish “drone superiority” on the battlefield you effectively win a major aspect of the war.

          With that said I’m not convinced that the US can beat China in this area. In particular because it will heavily lean on manufacturing capability which China is going to dominate in any extended war. They will be able to make many more drones than anyone else, and their capability for infrastructure construction will make it easy for them to move these factories underground.

      • mkultrawide [any]@hexbear.netEnglish
        7·
        10 months ago

        You are overthinking it. China is just going to turn the drones off because Raytheon refused to buy the chips from anyone other than a Chinese manufacturer because it was 1/5th the cost of the alternative, and all the chips have some backdoor to disable them.