A feud is heating up between Arizona workers and the world’s leading chipmaker after the company claimed the US doesn’t have the skills to build its new factory::TSMC wants to bring in foreign reinforcements to get its Arizona factory running because it claims there aren’t enough qualified local workers.
But the issue is that they aren’t going to sit on their hands while other countries/companies catch up. In part because “the semiconductor shield” is real. And also because… it is a LOT of money.
Branching out to other countries is… a choice. And I do hope it means we see more proliferation of skills. Because it is a major get for Intel to convince a Taiwanese engineer to move to Tel Aviv or whatever. It is a much smaller lift to convince someone to move from Arizona to New Mexico. Similarly, this has the potential to get TSMC a lot more in house designers for basically the opposite direction.
But this idea of “Oh, we can all learn. just give us time” is (generally) American Exceptionalism bullshit and a large part of how these incentives and tax breaks are being sold to politicians. Because, barring massive revolutions in processes, TSMC will still be on top even as the rest of the world becomes “competent”. And you can bet they’ll keep their best factories in Taiwan because, again, the semiconductor shield. But it will also mean that, when Xinnie the Pooh and china decide it is worth pissing away their economy to attack, the world doesn’t go back to the stone age. More like the bronze or iron.
Because if it were just a matter of pumping money and time into it? Jensen would be calling Intel about building the latest GPUs. Because I will definitely poke fun at how “far behind” Intel’s fabs are. But they are also actually REALLY good and some of the best on the planet. They just aren’t THE best and the big money is in being able to make those ridiculously fine grain processes and chips. And that is because Intel is very much still playing catch up with a moving target.
I worked in a semiconductor plant. There isn’t any special skill to it. You have a list that you do and nowadays the robots actually do all the difficult work.
In my time, you had to check and calculate by hand the offsets for the lithography machines. Now with it being done in self-contained robots because of the radiation x-ray process, a person just manages the robots.
Also, why isn’t the new Intel plant being built having the same issues with qualified workers?
I personally think it’s stupid to build a high water using plant in the middle of a desert, when the area hasn’t ever monitored the water table.
Finally, someone mentioning the water usage aspect for a plant being built in Arizona. A water intensive/critical process? Sure, set it up in a desert…
Intel recycles nearly 100% of the water they use, I’m sure TSMC will do something similar. They need to do a ridiculous amount of processing to make it suitable to return to the city supply anyways, so they just found a way to reuse
It’s not a choice though. It is an inevitability. The United States foolishly pushed everything off over there. Only now realizing how bad a mistake that was. And how silly it is for nearly all of that sort of product to originate in that region for no real reason. It would have always made sense for those products to be produced closer to the market that they are to be sold in if at all possible. And it has always been possible. There will be factories and Chip Manufacturing in the United States again soon. And yes it’s TSMC’s Choice ultimately whether or not they will be part of it. But it is happening.
To be clear I have a very low opinion of capitalists. And I 100% think that the heads of TSMC will act like short-sighted petulant children and probably screw themselves over in the long term.
And I don’t know where the hell the American exceptionalism BS came from. It has nothing to do with that. Any humans, basically anywhere in the world can potentially learn and be trained to do this. The biggest roadblock is the affordability of the equipment to do so currently. But every major country/region should be pushing right now to build their own ability to produce. Canada United States Brazil, the EU, Russia even, Australia, New Zealand. Especially looking into designing and building their own riskv technologies. It will happen eventually. But how bad capitalists respond to all this will determine ultimately how long they will be relevant.
The idea of “We just have to put our minds to it” is very much the foundation for American Exceptionalism. Anything we are good at, we are the best at. Anything we aren’t, we don’t care enough about.
As for: capitalism gonna capitalism. Maybe. But keep in mind that the Taiwanese government is the largest shareholder in TSMC. The concept of “the semiconductor shield” has increasingly become a core tenet of the defense against china. Because if it is in the entire world’s best interest that Taiwan not be leveled in a violent assault: World governments are likely to step in.
And, again, the idea that the rest of the world can “catch up” to today is very much a reality. The idea that TSMC is going to sit and wait for everyone is very much not. They are going to pump money into research, development, iteration, etc. Again, barring fundamental shifts in technology, they are going to be dominant for probably decades.
What various nations’ attempts at “catching up” is about is not overtaking TSMC. Part of it is about getting some of that nvidia money (which is becoming increasingly important as cars modernize). But mostly it is about preparing for being ostracized russia-style or TSMC being a giant crater. We won’t be able to make top of the line computer chips, but we might be able to keep some of our weaponry running.
It’s only American exceptionalism if it’s put in terms of americans. As I specifically stated I think any country can do this. There’s nothing special about Taiwan in this instance other than it already exists there. It used to exist in the US and Russia as well. It will again. Taiwan thinking it can, or that it’s good to maintain a monopoly. Is silly.
And again if Taiwan thinks that that’s going to save them. Which is a foolish thing to think. (China only wants them literally because they currently have a near Monopoly on manufacture. Diluting that Monopoly would actually make them safer) They’re going to be sorely disappointed. If China moved tonight. Not a single military unit would be dispatched to attack internationally. The US wastes the most money of any country on military and military equipment. But they aren’t going to deploy. China is threatening everyone around them with impunity. And the US/EU can’t threaten much more than hollow product boycotts. Because they’ve all handed over their nuts on a platter to exploit near slave labor in Xi’s authoritarian wonderland.
The best way to neuter Xi is for everyone to take back as much of China’s manufacturing as possible. And not concentrate it in the hands of an authoritarian dictator for a few bucks extra.