Military Junta in Niger has released a statement claiming that ECOWAS has completed its preparations for an Invasion of Niger with at least 2 Members of the Organization
ECOWAS’ deadline for the new Nigerien govt to peacefully step down lest they use military action has passed. "A Senior Military Commander with the ECOWAS-Standby Force has told the Wall Street Journal that it’s Forces need more time to prepare before any kind of Military Intervention in Niger, with the “Success” of the Operation being dependent on these preparations"
French Ministry of Foreign Affairs updates travel advisory to Niger, Mali, and Burkina Faso (the three nations declared to defend the new Nigerien govt against military intervention) the highest level of caution
The Nigerian Senate has refused the Nigerian President’s request for authorization to deploy troops. I don’t claim any expertise or knowledge in Nigerian politics, but it seems like intervention is running into some serious political opposition.
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If I were Nigeria I would be thinking really hard about the fact that Niger and allies have Wagner forces in country making it difficult to avoid causing an international incident. There is also the geopoltical nightmare that will come from any ECOWAS soldiers that inevitably fk up by attacking Chinese security contractors guarding industrial and construction sites.
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Nevermind that it would bring down the Russian and Chinese governments on Nigeria if they started killing their people… there is also the fact that Wagner are a battle hardened force that for over a decade has seen non-stop combat in everywhere from Ukraine to Syria. Niger and allies are using a strategy that has proven extremely successful in Syria at preventing western powers from doing another Libya. By inviting Russian and Chinese companies into their nations, it creates a situation where the geopolitical fall out becomes a lot higher for anyone doing a full scale invasion. There is also the issue of the Nigerian military currently fighting multiple insurgencies within their own borders (can’t commit much of their military) and Wagner always deploying with Pantsir units that make mincemeat out of aircraft. ECOWARs wouldn’t be able to defeat entrenched Wagner forces when Nigeria can’t even handle urban fighting at home against various Islamist groups.
Also:
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I don’t know how to say this, but international law is not really a specific set of magical words that everyone has to respect at all times. It’s more like a set of guidelines that smaller nations have to abide by, while the big guys get to do whatever they want. If Russia has an agreement with the people currently holding the reins of power in Niger, there is nothing preventing them from stationing troops (sorry, “mercs”) and using them to guard extraction projects that Russia wants. Also, Russia is currently the most sanctioned country on Earth, so I struggle to sort of see what the west plans on doing against them, in particular in light of the general antipathy that West Africa feels towards Europe.
Thirdly, stationing troops in another country as a “tripwire” force is also something that the Americans and other NATO countries have been doing for a while now. Otherwise the miniscule force in the Baltics make no sense, because their one job is to die so that the Americans can declare war on the basis of “their” soldiers being attacked.
Legal realists rise up!
the actual US troops in the Baltics are also backed up by NATO membership of those nations. the parallel would be if the US had contractors somewhere, and used their deaths as justification for intervention—which to my knowledge the US has not ever done. the US basically never discusses contractors’ deaths to launder low official bodycounts for wars. it’d actually be a novel development to launder real or proxy war on behalf of a specifically disavowable asset being attacked.
The death of 4 blackwater mercs was the justification of the first battle of Fallujah. It’s not quite the same but I thought it should be mentioned.
oh i did forget that, lol. quite different tho i agree
😠
I thought wagner guys were pretty much disposable?
They are and they aren’t, depending on which stance suits Russia. If Wagner gets attacked and Russia doesn’t want further involvement: “Wagner is a private organization and their people chose to head into a potential war zone.” If Russia wants to get more involved: “The brave heroes of Bakhmut have been attacked by terrorists.”
Their presence creates strategic ambiguity for anyone eyeing an intervention. Them being in Niger forces the Nigerians to ask France for a security guarantee against Russia if Russia gets involved. The French are much less likely to grant that guarantee unless they’re confident Russia won’t escalate (which they can’t know for sure).
I doubt they consider themselves disposable. And its a big operation with a very machismo “If you hit me, I’ll hit you back twice as hard” mentality. I would not hit a Wagner unit if I could avoid it, personally.
It’s going to come down to whether they will have access to Russian air defense systems and cheap Russian/Iranian-designed drones.
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That’s good to hear, because the last thing the continent needs is another Congolese War.