Military Junta in Niger has released a statement claiming that ECOWAS has completed its preparations for an Invasion of Niger with at least 2 Members of the Organization
ECOWAS’ deadline for the new Nigerien govt to peacefully step down lest they use military action has passed. "A Senior Military Commander with the ECOWAS-Standby Force has told the Wall Street Journal that it’s Forces need more time to prepare before any kind of Military Intervention in Niger, with the “Success” of the Operation being dependent on these preparations"
French Ministry of Foreign Affairs updates travel advisory to Niger, Mali, and Burkina Faso (the three nations declared to defend the new Nigerien govt against military intervention) the highest level of caution
I thought wagner guys were pretty much disposable?
They are and they aren’t, depending on which stance suits Russia. If Wagner gets attacked and Russia doesn’t want further involvement: “Wagner is a private organization and their people chose to head into a potential war zone.” If Russia wants to get more involved: “The brave heroes of Bakhmut have been attacked by terrorists.”
Their presence creates strategic ambiguity for anyone eyeing an intervention. Them being in Niger forces the Nigerians to ask France for a security guarantee against Russia if Russia gets involved. The French are much less likely to grant that guarantee unless they’re confident Russia won’t escalate (which they can’t know for sure).
I doubt they consider themselves disposable. And its a big operation with a very machismo “If you hit me, I’ll hit you back twice as hard” mentality. I would not hit a Wagner unit if I could avoid it, personally.
It’s going to come down to whether they will have access to Russian air defense systems and cheap Russian/Iranian-designed drones.