- cross-posted to:
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- usa@lemmy.ml
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i keep seeing that phrase “exit ramp” which speaks to the ameroidal car brain. kinda makes me chuckle every time. looking for the exit ramp of the war highway, the cashier at the war buffet, the curb cut at this war drive thru.
anyway, i know im not treading any new ground here, but i legit don’t see any avenue to deescalation. every effort has been made to exploit every cheap shot that could be taken from sinking unarmed ships in a wargame in a neutral country’s waters, to blanketing the capital in toxic sludge. they opened this shit bombing a school full of girls and previously executed strikes on diplomatic missions.
there’s no tactical or strategic reason for the iranian government to come to any table, even one brokered by a neutral third party because no nation could guarantee the US wouldn’t use it as an opportunity to make another strike. hell, it seems likely the US would.
literally, if i was in charge of the US, the only move i could see at this point as maybe working is surrendering elements of the US regime leadership and command structure, turning them over to some neutral state for trial. like basically a complete capitulation with some firm of public justice against the perpetrators offered.
because even if the US made some broad public withdrawal of forces from the region, that could mean the US was preparing to go nuclear from subs.
anyway, just saying, i think the us has no cards to play here to deescalate anything and the epstein coalition is just going to have to get used to there being no end in sight.
the only unknown is how this will all be marketed to those of us inside the core to make it all seem OK, normal, and not a big deal after weeks turn to months of bodies coming home and reports/videos of attacks leaking through the screen. and, if the analysis about stockpiles is true, the attacks on the US and its regional allies will continue to be more and more successful.
That’s my understanding of the whole thing as well. There is absolutely zero reason for Iran to settle for anything less than full American withdrawal from the region. There’s nothing left to negotiate about at this point, any promises the US makes obviously can’t be trusted. And if there’s some ceasefire then it just gives time to US and Israel to rebuild. Now that the war is on and Iran controls escalation, they have to go all the way.
And from American perspective, it would be a colossal humiliation if they’re forced to run home with their tail between their legs. It would definitively show the whole world that the US is no longer a superpower that cannot be challenged. All their vassals are already starting to realize that they’re expendable, and that the empire can’t protect them. So, a withdrawal would mean a complete collapse of American geopolitical position.
In this way, the war is existential for both Iran and the US. And hence why I don’t see either side backing down here until the limitations of material reality catch up to them. My expectation is that the US will end up running out of weapons before Iran does. They’re already heavily depleted in Ukraine, American weapons are far more expensive to produce, and they have to be shipped across the ocean. Iran has a huge advantage fighting on their home turf. On top of that, every radar, warehouse, and ammo storage depot that Iran destroys worsens future logistics for the US. Weapons, ammunition, food, and fuel have to be stored somewhere, and if these facilities are being systematically dismantled, that’s a nightmare for the US army.
