Key takeaway for me is that there is actually some action being taken by vassal governments:
These sentiments [the public in many countries growing increasingly supportive of China] are already being translated into action.
Canada’s Prime Minister Mark Carney declared a “rupture” between Ottawa and Washington in January and backed that rhetoric by sealing a trade deal with Beijing that same month. The U.K. inked several high-value export deals with China not long after, while both French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Friedrich Merz have returned from recent summits in Beijing with Chinese purchase orders for European products.
True, but they also keep buying the rope to hang themselves with from the US, like LNG. Hopefully material reality will continue to impose itself on Europe’s trajectory towards the east.
My expectation is that the EU has to collapse first, and then individual countries can flip over to BRICS. As long as the EU is around, they will use economic coercion to make sure European countries aren’t getting too cozy with Russia or China. Another key piece of the puzzle is Russia winning in Ukraine decisively. At that point Hungary and Slovakia will have direct land access to the East which is blocked right now. Those are the two most likely EU dominoes to fall first.
Key takeaway for me is that there is actually some action being taken by vassal governments:
They basically have no choice at this point, the economic situation in the west keeps getting worse and the US can’t really do anything for them.
True, but they also keep buying the rope to hang themselves with from the US, like LNG. Hopefully material reality will continue to impose itself on Europe’s trajectory towards the east.
My expectation is that the EU has to collapse first, and then individual countries can flip over to BRICS. As long as the EU is around, they will use economic coercion to make sure European countries aren’t getting too cozy with Russia or China. Another key piece of the puzzle is Russia winning in Ukraine decisively. At that point Hungary and Slovakia will have direct land access to the East which is blocked right now. Those are the two most likely EU dominoes to fall first.
Agreed. Whatever deals EU countries make with China now are probably too little, too late.
yup