Most probably the US government will not make it through the ongoing climate catastrophe in its current form. The US leadership is far too irrational and operates on a maximalist logic for pretty much everything.
I assume that a combination of water shortages, epidemics, mass immigration and energy crunches will trigger a political crisis in the southern part of the US. The union might survive this crisis, but the damage will be done and some years later down the line, the US will balkanize. During this turbulent period, there is a possibility that some parts of the US become socialist, and from that point onward, the continent becomes locked in a few decades of struggle similar to the warlord era of China after which some socialist faction gains total domination after a bloody civil war.
Alternatively, it is possible for a military coup in the US, during which the US does not balkanize. The resulting state will most certainly not be socialist, and likely face a lot of internal resistance for years to come. This military junta will eventually be forced to give up power (as most military juntas have trouble keeping power forever). The state that comes after will also likely not be socialist, as any military junta will probably continue to interfere in the democratic process. It is difficult to imagine exactly how the US could become socialist in a reasonable time frame in this scenario.
Either way, the US will probably not become socialist before 2050. Probably the US will face a major crisis or world war by the end of the 2030s, but the state that comes after a collapse won’t be socialist right away, and the situation will take further decades to resolve.
Most probably the US government will not make it through the ongoing climate catastrophe in its current form. The US leadership is far too irrational and operates on a maximalist logic for pretty much everything.
I assume that a combination of water shortages, epidemics, mass immigration and energy crunches will trigger a political crisis in the southern part of the US. The union might survive this crisis, but the damage will be done and some years later down the line, the US will balkanize. During this turbulent period, there is a possibility that some parts of the US become socialist, and from that point onward, the continent becomes locked in a few decades of struggle similar to the warlord era of China after which some socialist faction gains total domination after a bloody civil war.
Alternatively, it is possible for a military coup in the US, during which the US does not balkanize. The resulting state will most certainly not be socialist, and likely face a lot of internal resistance for years to come. This military junta will eventually be forced to give up power (as most military juntas have trouble keeping power forever). The state that comes after will also likely not be socialist, as any military junta will probably continue to interfere in the democratic process. It is difficult to imagine exactly how the US could become socialist in a reasonable time frame in this scenario.
Either way, the US will probably not become socialist before 2050. Probably the US will face a major crisis or world war by the end of the 2030s, but the state that comes after a collapse won’t be socialist right away, and the situation will take further decades to resolve.