Moved from @pingveno

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Cake day: August 7th, 2023

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  • Come to think of it, it doesn’t really make sense for Iran to want this sort of escalation to happen. The ideal situation from its standpoint is for Palestine to be a continuous thorn in Israel’s side, but not too much. That’s cheap to do and disruptive to Israel. If Israel connects the killing of hundreds of civilians to Iran, that could be justification for all out war. That would be damaging for both sides, but ultimately I think Iran would come out the worse.

    For a vaguely comparable situation, look to Ukraine. NATO is willing to arm and train Ukraine, but committing NATO soldiers involves incredibly high amounts of risk. That’s why NATO has held back, even though its conventional armed forces would have no trouble taking on Russia.



  • I think it’s becoming better overall, not worse. Yes, there’s a populism issue at the moment, but this is far from the first time that’s happened. We’re dealing with the introduction of an entire new means of communication, online media in general and social media more specifically. That brings all new hazards and benefits that need to be dealt with.

    The era after the printing press was developed brought intellectual development, but it also sparked revolutions. Those didn’t always wind up with that right people getting into power. It took a while for society to adapt and stabilize. I expect the same will happen with Internet communication.

    I’m also hopeful because studies have shown that successive generations generally improve their abilities in abstract thinking. (I’m having trouble sourcing that statement, unfortunately). That’s important for the economy because the jobs of the future will need that abstract thinking. At least in my experience, it also acts as a bulwark against bad actors because people with poorer abstract thinking abilities tend to be more gullible, at least when it comes to lies that they like.





  • There’s a quote from P.J. O’Rourke that illustrates the point well:

    The Democrats are the party that says government will make you smarter, taller, richer, and remove the crabgrass on your lawn. The Republicans are the party that says government doesn’t work and then they get elected and prove it.

    A central tenant of the Democratic Party is that government can be a force for good and should be run well. Republicans try to tear the government down, especially at the federal level. The party as a whole doesn’t care nearly as much about good governance principles, though there are of course exceptions.