He predicts Harris will win citing 8 keys he uses:
No primary contest and the party is largely behind her
No sizable third party spoil
In the short term and long term economies are good
Biden made large policy changes like Paris accords, chips act, inflation reduction act
No sustained social unrest
No meaningful white house scandals
Challenger charisma is limited to a narrow base
The points against her are:
Midterm gains by challengers
Harris isn't the incumbent
With Foreign policy failures and Foreign policy success left unchecked because she passed the majority of the keys.
With those last two he says “The Biden administration is deeply invested in the war in Gaza. Which is a humanitarian disaster, with no end in sight”
Well…