i live in luxembourg and am part of the local communist party but i frequently ask myself if a tiny landlocked nation even could be socialist (imagining that a revolution somehow happened) because we are surrounded by european core countries like germany and france which build the center of the neoliberal european union and they would never let this country turn socialist. In answer to this they with the help of the US would most certainly invade Luxembourg. Independence would also be a problem, we are completely dependent on trade with other countries, mostly our western neighbors and their finance which would (IF the invasion failed) sanction us. In answer, if Luxembourg turned socialist it would be a misery for the poeple, not because of the socialism, but because of our “allies” attacking and sanctioning us.
Luxembourg will not turn socialist before enough of its neighbors do. The reason for this has as much to do with its own internal socio-economics as it does with its geographical position. To understand why we have to look at some even more extreme examples:
European microstates like Liechtenstein or Monaco which can barely be called countries will be the last on the planet to turn socialist because they are essentially just tax havens for the rich which heavily bribe their already well off population with social services funded through wealth stolen from the proletariat of real countries. There is no proletariat to speak of in such microstates, as the proletarians have largely been pushed out into neighboring states through what is in effect a state wide gentrification. The only way for them to turn socialist is to have socialism forced on them by an outside socialist power which will annex them.
Now Luxembourg is not quite in this situation, it is slightly larger (but not by that much) and it has some industry and real economy (though not much), but it is not that far away from those extreme cases either, and imo its best hope of turning socialist is still annexation by one of its larger neighbors.