Do you guys think linux will ever win over time? I see hate towards ubuntu every now and then but I think of it as the most “idiot-proof” distro (maybe I’m wrong)
Hell, that would have been the case 10 years ago. Now that Windows is ‘the default’ for almost everybody, I can never see Linux taking that crown even if Windows never advertised again.
Windows is much less of a default today than it was 20 years ago.
This data shows 2009 to now, Windows has been in a slow trend down with macOS on a slow march up. Back around 2000, Windows was probably 99%, now it’s down to 69%.
If we include mobile, Android is bigger than Windows, which is wild. Microsoft completely fumbled the ball on mobile. Ironically they had Windows Mobile long before iOS or Android were even ideas, but they failed to take the iPhone seriously and never recovered.
No giant is too big to fall. That being said, desktop Linux would need to make some significant changes to get itself in the running. Primarily, not being generically “Linux”, and have a distro the whole community organizes around and make it the best desktop OS out there. The lack of focus can generate a lot of interesting ideas and projects, but really slows down progress and increases confusion for new users.
macOS has 20% marketshare and has been the main reasons Windows has been dropping for over a decade now. macOS is Unix. There is no reason Linux couldn’t be just as easy to use, or even better… combining ease of use with user control. But I think for that to happen some hard decisions need to be made. Kill off the dead weight projects and get everyone behind the stuff that’s going to really matter.
It’s not about marketing, it’s about trying to turn on surround sound, almost blowing up my speakers with static, and reading through pulse audio or Alsa configs for hours to do what an AppleTV just does innately.
Linux, and especially desktop linux, is a collection of disparate technologies by different groups with different priorities and it will never have a cohesive vision or responsive support.
I’ve had a Linux desktop on and off for over 20 years and it’s always some bullshit or another.
It’s always the year of Linux on the desktop if you’re a masochist.
I think Ubuntu and some other Linux distros are arguably more idiot proof than Windows, especially if used by a child with no former experience with anything. The issue of course, is that people just expect every piece of software to work out of the box, and much software that gets advertised to people, including games, targets Windows. Yes, most stuff works with compatibility layers now and more software is targeting Linux as well. However as soon as a person encounters a piece of software where something doesn’t just work they will probably ditch the OS, not look for fixes or an alternative, especially for something like a game where there is FOMO attached.
Well, Ubuntu pioneered this thing! Fortunately it was short lived and you could opt out.
A good and user-friendly distro nevertheless. Who knows if it will ever “win” on the desktop, but I am sure the more mainstream it becomes, the more hate it will get!
I think the newer immutable distros will become the more mainstream option.
In practice it behaves more like a phone where you use sandboxed apps and the base system cannot be modded.
However on immutable distros you can make changes to the system but only with a specific method. This is how the Steam Deck is setup and I can see it working very well for the average user.
If you’re speaking of the consumer space, not severs, where Linux already won… Linux/Unix won in mobile (Android is Linux, iOS is Unix), or course both of these are a fry cry from what people talk about when they speak about Linux on the desktop.
I think what most people see as the strength of Linux is also it’s weakness when it comes to mass market adoption. There are simply too many options and too much fragmentation for it to be viable for people who aren’t really into computers.
Ubuntu came close to becoming the de facto standard for desktop Linux, but then kind of fell out of favor. I assume due to Unity and the whole Amazon ad non-sense which violated the trust of a lot of people, even though it could be removed, it showed poor judgement. Since then, I haven’t seen and distro push that hard to make it into the mainstream. Without a single distro that dominates the consumer space, the point where OEMs feel comfortable providing it as an option, I don’t see it happening.
Do you guys think linux will ever win over time? I see hate towards ubuntu every now and then but I think of it as the most “idiot-proof” distro (maybe I’m wrong)
No. Something with no marketing never beats something with billions of dollars in marketing and partnerships.
Hell, that would have been the case 10 years ago. Now that Windows is ‘the default’ for almost everybody, I can never see Linux taking that crown even if Windows never advertised again.
Windows is much less of a default today than it was 20 years ago.
This data shows 2009 to now, Windows has been in a slow trend down with macOS on a slow march up. Back around 2000, Windows was probably 99%, now it’s down to 69%.
https://gs.statcounter.com/os-market-share/desktop/worldwide/#monthly-200901-202308
If we include mobile, Android is bigger than Windows, which is wild. Microsoft completely fumbled the ball on mobile. Ironically they had Windows Mobile long before iOS or Android were even ideas, but they failed to take the iPhone seriously and never recovered.
https://gs.statcounter.com/os-market-share#monthly-200901-202308
No giant is too big to fall. That being said, desktop Linux would need to make some significant changes to get itself in the running. Primarily, not being generically “Linux”, and have a distro the whole community organizes around and make it the best desktop OS out there. The lack of focus can generate a lot of interesting ideas and projects, but really slows down progress and increases confusion for new users.
macOS has 20% marketshare and has been the main reasons Windows has been dropping for over a decade now. macOS is Unix. There is no reason Linux couldn’t be just as easy to use, or even better… combining ease of use with user control. But I think for that to happen some hard decisions need to be made. Kill off the dead weight projects and get everyone behind the stuff that’s going to really matter.
Windows was the default for almost everybody 10 years ago too.
You’re definitely right about that, I tend to forgot how recent 10 years ago was…
It’s not about marketing, it’s about trying to turn on surround sound, almost blowing up my speakers with static, and reading through pulse audio or Alsa configs for hours to do what an AppleTV just does innately.
Linux, and especially desktop linux, is a collection of disparate technologies by different groups with different priorities and it will never have a cohesive vision or responsive support.
I’ve had a Linux desktop on and off for over 20 years and it’s always some bullshit or another.
It’s always the year of Linux on the desktop if you’re a masochist.
Signed: a masochist.
I started using Ubuntu partly because all that just works
The distro that almost blew up my speakers(and my eardrums) just happened to be Ubuntu! Small world!
deleted by creator
I think Ubuntu and some other Linux distros are arguably more idiot proof than Windows, especially if used by a child with no former experience with anything. The issue of course, is that people just expect every piece of software to work out of the box, and much software that gets advertised to people, including games, targets Windows. Yes, most stuff works with compatibility layers now and more software is targeting Linux as well. However as soon as a person encounters a piece of software where something doesn’t just work they will probably ditch the OS, not look for fixes or an alternative, especially for something like a game where there is FOMO attached.
Kids and elders in my family get Linux. It’s especially easy to sell it to them too, since:
Well, Ubuntu pioneered this thing! Fortunately it was short lived and you could opt out.
A good and user-friendly distro nevertheless. Who knows if it will ever “win” on the desktop, but I am sure the more mainstream it becomes, the more hate it will get!
I think the newer immutable distros will become the more mainstream option.
In practice it behaves more like a phone where you use sandboxed apps and the base system cannot be modded.
However on immutable distros you can make changes to the system but only with a specific method. This is how the Steam Deck is setup and I can see it working very well for the average user.
I think if somehow office 365 got working easily on linux there will be a decent sized shift
If you’re speaking of the consumer space, not severs, where Linux already won… Linux/Unix won in mobile (Android is Linux, iOS is Unix), or course both of these are a fry cry from what people talk about when they speak about Linux on the desktop.
I think what most people see as the strength of Linux is also it’s weakness when it comes to mass market adoption. There are simply too many options and too much fragmentation for it to be viable for people who aren’t really into computers.
Ubuntu came close to becoming the de facto standard for desktop Linux, but then kind of fell out of favor. I assume due to Unity and the whole Amazon ad non-sense which violated the trust of a lot of people, even though it could be removed, it showed poor judgement. Since then, I haven’t seen and distro push that hard to make it into the mainstream. Without a single distro that dominates the consumer space, the point where OEMs feel comfortable providing it as an option, I don’t see it happening.