VILenin [he/him]

Yes it’s me, Vladimir Lenin. :i-was-sayingI-was-saying

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Joined 5 years ago
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Cake day: July 29th, 2020

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  • Yeah I feel like there are some people that just want to consume meaningless “China collapsing tomorrow, Xi PANICKING” slop but in the opposite direction. It’s more exhausting each time to see mostly vibes-based assertions that US/Israel are headed by stupid people and are teetering on the brink of collapse. The most egregious I’ve seen is the idea that Israel won’t exist by 2030. Or war with China by 2027 (I still haven’t seen an adequate explanation for why the US or China would choose to end human civilization instead of cruising to victory on the status quo). Madman theatrics by politicians are taken way too seriously.

    I think since people want some cataclysmic karmic destruction of the US/Israel to happen that confirmation bias is going into overdrive. So people keep getting excited about Putin’s nothingburger speeches, showman statements from the Russian or Chinese MFAs, etc. People thought Iran/Israel was going to start WWIII. Well, war with China isn’t happening, so by definition WWIII isn’t happening either. The cathartic sudden destruction of the US is just something that is not going to happen.



  • They release these types of reports all the time to funnel a few extra trillion dollars to Lockheed Martin to develop the latest shitty prototype that doesn’t work. Any US government report about how the military is behind and war with xyz is imminent is released for the express purpose of justifying military funding increases. If they have any relationship with reality and the actual intentions of the powers that be, that would just be a neat bonus. Any meaningful US government report on how the military is behind and war with xyz is imminent would never be seen by you or me.

    An actual war with China would immediately end civilization.




  • There are a few ways to shut off the engine without touching the fuel switches, if this happened it should have been logged, but they haven’t released the raw data.

    At this point in the flight the pilot flying should have both hands on the yoke, and the other pilot is responsible for raising the gear, flaps, making radio calls etc. Definitely neither pilot should have their hands anywhere near the fuel switches, but fatigue has been demonstrated to make massive mistakes possible. Raising the gear level is vaguely similar (you have to pull it out of a detente and flip it over a notch). Of course the gear lever is nowhere near the fuel switches, but that goes back to my point about fatigue. It’s extremely rare, but the safety mechanism for the switches has failed before, if this happened it would make accidentally flipping them an easier thing to do.

    But as I’ve said, intent is a very hard thing to prove. The only times pilot suicide has unambiguously been proven is when they a)locked the other pilot out, or b) were recorded ranting and raving in the cockpit. Hopefully the AAIB can determine if there was a mechanical fault. But if they determine that the switches are the reason, I would guess the final report would say the cause is “due to activation of the fuel cutoff switches for unknown reasons”, or some variation of that.

    Take Air France 447, for example. The first officer pulled the nose up while in a stall and held it in that position despite every pilot learning on day one to do the exact opposite. He continued to do so even when the captain told him to push the nose down. Was that pilot suicide? A possibility, yes, but something that’s unprovable.


  • Well, reading the report, there seems to be some ambiguity. It’s unclear if the recorder is based off of the physical position of the fuel cutoff switches or off of a digital reading.

    I have flown the 787. As for the switches themselves, they are in a detente and you have to pull them against a spring and over a notch to move them to the off position. It’s hard to imagine how they would be moved unintentionally, especially by these experienced pilots. The report says they were shut off within 1 second of each other.

    One of the pilots asks the other why they shut off the switches, the other pilot denies it, and shortly afterwards they are turned back on but by then it’s too late.

    So, I can see where the “murder/suicide” people are coming from, but it’s important to understand that this report is the preliminary report mandated by ICAO and is for informational purposes only. Only the final report will determine a probable cause for the accident, if it can be determined, and looking at the facts, it’s unlikely that they can come to a definite conclusion, since there is no video footage of the cockpit. If there was something wrong with the switches, they will be very lucky if they can still tell. If one of the pilots switched them off, it’s impossible to know which one and why, and who turned them back on (and if it was the same pilot after realizing a mistake).