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It’ll be interesting to see whether China will bail out the US again, and whether it will keep Russia afloat. My guess is yes and yes, but if there’s a strong voice in China saying now is the time to decouple from the US, it could be no and yes. It depends how prepared China feels. It’s that happens, it’s done. Revolutions throughout the global south in our lifetimes. Without super profits to pay off it’s workers, the global north will soon follow. Greece, Ireland, Portugal, Italy, and France, first. Then it’s anyone’s game. One can dream, right?
I really don’t see any reason China would bail US out at this point. US has basically openly declared that it wants to keep China down by any means necessary. I think that China’s been looking at what’s been going on with Russia since the start of the war and quietly preparing. The fact that China’s getting very assertive all of a sudden suggests to me that China now feels it’s sufficiently decoupled from the western system that it will be able to handle whatever sanctions US throws at it and by extension any crash that western system may experience in the near future.
If western financial system crashes, and we may already be in early stages of a crash right now, and China rides the crash out then US becomes discredited over night. The world will no longer look to the west as any sort of a model.
Did anyone else had this post glitch and be replaced with the meme about dedollarization? Because I had this happen several times somehow
I’m currently listening to Richard Wolff discussing how crises in capitalism occur every 4-7 years give or take a few years. He gives a few American examples (he was on Chapo so that makes sense) has Russia had similar economic crashes in the late 90s and 2000s and 2010s? I don’t know as much about Russia but I know that capitalism has inevitable consequences that it wreaks quite often
The crashes Russia had were pretty bad, especially the one in the late 90s that led to Putin coming to power and starting to clean up some of the worst excesses. That crash was catastrophic and pretty much wiped out the currency and a lot of people’s savings, and it was a result of the decade of brutal shock therapy applied to post-Soviet Russia. A lot of people committed suicide and there was a real fear in the west of another revolution in Russia.
And yes there were subsequent ones too, but as a result of Russia’s general recovery over these past decades, these crashes have been getting less severe as time goes on: the 2008 crash was unavoidable since it was global but it was not as bad as the one in the late 90s; and the 2014 one which was triggered by western sanctions in response to the Crimean referendum led to Russia adopting policies which have made it much more autarkic and resilient to sanctions. You could also call the economic contraction they experienced last year as a result of the war and the new western sanctions a mini-crash but a rapid recovery is already happening thanks to good economic relations with China and the global south.
However the rules of capitalism still apply to Russia and no matter how well things are going now there will be more and worse crashes in the future. The only way to mitigate these unavoidable crises is to adopt policies resembling those of China, increase the role of the state sector and state control over the banks and the general direction of the economy, and Russia has been doing a bit of this in response to the economic pressures of the sanctions and the war, but not nearly enough.
The only way to completely eliminate this cycle is to adopt an actual socialist economic model but the current Russian ruling class is not interested in doing that.
Yea I remember a clip being posted and shared around in which some Russian politician essentially suggested switching to a form of socialism citing the popularity of Western Neoliberalism and Fascist Banderists as evidence of the evils ruining Russia’s economy and financial stability. Putin and a few others smirked and basically said “yes sure lol we’ll ToTaLLy ThInK AbOut iT”
“Sorry Russia, we now forbid you to enter the dog poop restaurant, hope you’re mad”
I mean, plenty of people here are mad about it
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Indeed, and hopefully China will come out on top in this crisis as well. If that happens the entire western system will become discredited overnight.
bit worried about china actually, ofc it’s not going to be as bad as it is going to be for the west but china’s economy is more intertwined with the west’s
I think China has a proven ability to do long term planning. I imagine they will be fine in the grand scheme of things.
Its a heavy double edged sword. Russia is heavily dependent on their resource extraction and export industry, and if other countries are hit hard by a financial crisis… then who will be able to pay for the resources Russia’s selling? And how?
BRICS. The financial crisis will only affect dollars. These countries can trade in their national currencies. Later, they can streamline this trade with a common trade currency, that is only used for settling balances and cannot be spent in any domestic country (unlike the USD, which privileges Americans).
Maybe this is the crisis that turns a lot of countries away from the unstable western financial system.
It might be true, though idk to what extent, since Russia is trading with many countries that will get hit harsh.
They will get hit hard, but the BRICS countries can increase their trade between each other and co-invest in others. Now Iran and Saudi are willing to get on board there’s even more potential for growth in the ME and Central Asia. Many LATAM and Africans nations already trade heavily with China and Russia.
These countries should ditch the dollar.
Not sure exactly how Saudi Arabia having diplomatic relations with Iran will meaningfully affect BRICS YET, although I will say I think it will be pretty beneficial to BRICS overall
Aren’t there already suggestions of Saudi investment in Iran? Whatever else you may think of the Saudi regime (i for one absolutely despise them) this represents yet another defeat for the imperialist attempt to isolate Iran, and another instance of South-South co-operation and mutually beneficial economic activity of the type BRICS exists to foster.
Like Turkey, Saudi Arabia has now been drawn into the BRICS orbit and whether they actually ever join it or not there are solid economic and diplomatic ties being built that will be very detrimental for the imperialist hegemony.
You’re probably right.
In the meantime lemmy libs are explaining how nothing is happening and USA have learned from 2008 and have robust regulations now which means no crisis will happen. And as they write this, this “nothing” spreads to Europe and some swiss banks are already in panic.