Wonder how this’ll play out. After Krasna Hora and Ivanivske fall UAF has to pull out. Realistically way before that. If any significant part of the Bakhmut garrsion gets trapped in a cauldron there, I don’t see how they could recover really.
I don’t see how they could recover really
NATO troops?
The thing is, that doesn’t happen without American approval. My sense is that there are people in Washington crazy enough to try this (because they think US industrial production is still what it was in 1960), but they’re at least woke enough to internal political trends to realize that this would be very unpopular with a huge section of the electorate, and would probably cost them their jobs. And whether the military would actually go along with open war against Russia is an open question.
The political situation here is very fragile. One section of the ruling class, the low-level billionaires like Trump and DeVos, are in conflict with the upper levels of capital like Microsoft, Exxon Mobile, Shell, etc. The January 6th riots – funniest day in US history – were one expression of this. The political establishment seems to be dividing into factions, with the various government departments (among which there is a stupid amount of duplication) serving as pawns. Nobody wants to blink and, by doing something politically unpopular, give the other side the advantage. As I see it, the real danger at this point isn’t that NATO is an unstoppable juggernaut with an infallible master plan; it’s more internal political conflicts within the US dragging the rest of the world into an armed conflict.
Quite the little salient they have there poking out of Kilschiivka.
Yes, it’s a bit worrying
Sooo what’s to stop AFU from flanking? I’m not even an armchair general, just concerned
They dont have offensive capabilities in the area and are purely in the defensive. The map also doesnt show that theres a russian advance from klescheevka towards predtechynoye, securing the flank.
Judging by the picture it doesn’t look like the AFU has any units to flank with. It looks like they could hypothetically flank the Russian units to the northwest of Kilshchiivka with the three AFU units in Chasiv-Yar, but that would spread their units too thin on the frontline leaving none in reserve. The Russians could then pierce their front line with impunity knowing they wouldn’t face a significant counterattack.
It’s not clear they have anything left to flank with at this point. On top of that, Russia is now attacking from Zaporozhye and there’s a significant force stationed in Belarus. This forces Ukraine to spread their remaining forces thinly across the contact line or risk another significant breakthrough if they pull them off.
Just looking at the roads in and out of Bakhmut tells you that it’s strategically important.
